General Science and Philosophy


Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity

Authors: Yigal Gurevich

In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%.

Comments: 10 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2016-10-14 17:24:52

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