General Science and Philosophy


Use of Bayesian Belief Networks in Predicting Contamination of Drinking Water with e. Coli in Rural Vietnam.

Authors: David C. Hall, Quynh Ba Le

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was designed to describe association between various deterministic and probabilistic variables gathered from 600 small scale integrated (SSI) farmers in Vietnam. The variables relate to E. coli content of their drinking water, sourced on-farm from wells and rain water. Sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that choice variables were particularly likely to influence endpoint values, reflecting the highly variable and impactful nature of preferences, attitudes, and beliefs relating to mitigation strategies. This BBN model of SSI farming in Vietnam is helpful to understanding the complexity of small scale agriculture as well as for identifying and estimating impact of policy options, particularly where combined with other analytical and policy tools. With appropriate knowledge translation, the model results will be particularly useful for helping SSI farmers understand their options for engaging in water public health mitigation strategies that do not disrupt their chosen livelihoods.

Comments: 11 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2016-12-31 16:18:02

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