Authors: John Smith
Abstract In 1963, a game show called Lets Make A Deal began in the United States. On the show, the host - Monty Hall - would present contestants with the choice of 3 doors, behind only 1 of which was a car. A contestant would pick a door such as No. 1, and Monty, who knew what was behind the doors, would open another door, say No. 2, revealing a goat. Monty would then ask the contestant if they wanted to change their selection to door No. 3. It is widely accepted that the contestant should change doors on the basis that the chances of the car being behind door 3 are 2/3, whereas the chances of the car being behind door 1 are only 1/3. But by appeal to congruities that exist between this seemingly innocuous and simple problem and variety of deeper and less tractable problems, the Monty Hall Problem is revealed as the tip of a great intellectual iceberg.
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[v1] 2017-09-27 14:14:11
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