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Recent submissions

Any replacements are listed farther down

[247] viXra:1907.0077 [pdf] submitted on 2019-07-04 06:22:03

Expansions of Maximum and Minimum from Generalized Maxwell Distribution

Authors: Jianwen Huang, Xinling Liu, Jianjun Wang
Comments: 13 Pages.

Generalized Maxwell distribution is an extension of the classic Maxwell distribution. In this paper, we concentrate on the joint distributional asymptotics of normalized maxima and minima. Under optimal normalizing constants, asymptotic expansions of joint distribution and density for normalized partial maxima and minima are established. These expansions are used to educe speeds of convergence of joint distribution and density of normalized maxima and minima tending to its corresponding ultimate limits. Numerical analysis are provided to support our results.
Category: Statistics

[246] viXra:1906.0370 [pdf] submitted on 2019-06-19 09:29:49

Formulation of the Classical Probability and Some Probability Distributions Due to Neutrosophic Logic and Its Impact on Decision Making (Arabic Version))

Authors: Rafif Alhabib, Moustafa Mzher Ranna, Haitham Farah, A.A. Salama
Comments: 169 Pages.

والجوهر الأساسي لبحثنا هو تطبيق منطق النيتروسوفيك على جزء من نظرية الاحتمالات الكلاسيكية وذلك من خلال تقديم الاحتمال الكلاسيكي وبعض التوزيعات الاحتمالية وفق منطق النيتروسوفيك ومن ثم د ا رسة أثر استخدام هذا المنطق على عملية اتخاذ الق ا رر مع المقارنة المستمرة بين المنطق الكلاسيكي ومنطق النيتروسوفيك من خلال الد ا رسات والنتائج. تضم الأطروحة خمسة فصول
Category: Statistics

[245] viXra:1905.0538 [pdf] submitted on 2019-05-29 00:56:35

Atherosclerosis is an Infectious Disease

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 16 pages. Copyright © 2019 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by:

Aim Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Studies reported that anti-rheumatic drug usage is associated with decreased risk of CAD events in RA patients. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of some anti-inflammatory drugs (etanercept, leflunomide, etoricoxib) on the development of CAD events among patients with RA using anti-rheumatic drug in comparison with nonusers. Methods A systematic review of CAD events in RA patients was performed who used leflunomide, etanercept and etoricoxib and was compared with RA patients who don’t use these drugs. The exclusion relationship and the causal relationship k were used to test the significance of the result. A p-value of < 0.05 was treated as significant. Results Among RA patients, use of leflunomide (p (EXCL) =0,999022483; X2 (EXCL) = 0,06; k = -0,03888389; p-value ( k | HGD) =0,00037588), etanercept and etoricoxib was associated with significantly decreased incidence of CAD. The use leflunomide, etanercept and etoricoxib excludes cardiac events in RA patients. Conclusion The results of study provide further support for the infectious hypothesis of atherosclerosis. Key words: atherosclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, therapy, causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[244] viXra:1905.0371 [pdf] submitted on 2019-05-19 06:42:36

Glyphosate and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: no Causal Relationship

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 29 pages. Copyright © 2019 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by:

Objective: Herbicides are used worldwide by both residential and agricultural users. Due to the statistical analysis of some epidemiologic studies the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified the broad-spectrum herbicide glyphosate (GS) in 2015, as potentially carcinogenic to humans especially with respect to non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). In this systematic review and re-analysis, the relationship between glyphosate and NHL was re- investigated. Methods: A systematic review and re-analysis of studies which investigated the relationship between GS and NHL was conducted. The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship, the method of the conditio per quam relationship, the method of the exclusion relationship and the mathematical formula of the causal relationship k were used to proof the hypothesis. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analyzed do not provide any direct and indirect evidence that NHL is caused GS. Conclusion: In this re-analysis, no causal relationship was apparent between glyphosate and NHL and its subtypes. Keywords: Glyphosate, Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, no causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[243] viXra:1905.0345 [pdf] submitted on 2019-05-18 15:08:29

Conjecture Sur Les Familles Exponentielles

Authors: Idriss olivier BADO
Comments: 5 Pages.

in this article we will establish some properties of random variables and then we will propose a conjecture related to the exponential family. This conjecture seems interesting to me. Our results are based on the consideration of continuous random variables $X_{i}$ defined on the same space $\Omega$ and the same super-extra density law of parameter $\theta_{i} $ and canonique function $T$ Let $n\in \mathbb{N}^{*}$ Considering the random variable $J$ and $I$ a subsect of $\{1,2,..n\}$ such that : $ X_{J}=\inf_{i\in I}(X_{i})$ we show that : $$\forall i\in I:\mathbb{P}( J=i)=\frac{\theta_{i}\prod_{j\in I}c(\theta_{j})}{\sum_{j\in I}\theta_{j}}\int_{T(\Omega)}e^{-x}dx$$. We conjecture that if the density of $ X_{i}$ is $ c(\theta_{i})e^{-\theta_{i}T(x)}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega}(x)$ Hence $\exists h,r$ two functions h such that $$ \forall i\in I:\mathbb{P}( J=i)=\frac{r(\theta_{i})\prod_{j\in I}h(\theta_{j})}{\sum_{j\in I}r(\theta_{j})}\int_{T(\Omega)}e^{-x}dx$$
Category: Statistics

[242] viXra:1905.0211 [pdf] submitted on 2019-05-14 14:10:00

Modelling Passive Forever Churn via Bayesian Survival Analysis

Authors: Gavin Steininger
Comments: 8 Pages.

This paper presents an approach to modelling passive forever churn (i.e., the probability that a user never returns to a game that does not require them to cancel it). The approach is based on parametric mixture models (Weibull, Gamma, and Log-normal) for return times. The model and data are inverted using Bayesian methods (MCMC and DIC) to get parameter estimates, uncertainties, as well as determine the return time distribution for retained users. The inversion scheme is tested on three groups of simulated data sets and one observed data set. The simulated data are generated with each of the parametric models. Each data set is censored to six time horizons, creating 18 data sets. All data sets are inverted with all three parametric models and the DIC is used to select the return time distribution. For all data sets the true return time distribution (i.e., the one that is used to simulate the data) has the best DIC value; for 16 inversions the true return time distribution is found to be significantly better than the other options. For the observed data set inversion, the scheme is able to accurately estimate the \% of users that did return (before the game transitioned into open beta) to given 14 days of observations.
Category: Statistics

[241] viXra:1904.0348 [pdf] submitted on 2019-04-17 07:39:46

Remark on Possible Use of Quadruple Neutrosophic Numbers for Realistic Modelling of Physical Systems

Authors: Victor Christianto, Florentin Smarandache
Comments: 6 Pages. This paper has been submitted to Axioms journal (MDPI). Comments are welcome

During mathematical modeling of real technical system we can meet any type and rate model uncertainty. Its reasons can be incognizance of modelers or data inaccuracy. So, classification of uncertainties, with respect to their sources, distinguishes between aleatory and epistemic ones. The aleatory uncertainty is an inherent data variation associated with the investigated system or its environment. Epistemic one is an uncertainty that is due to a lack of knowledge of quantities or processes of the system or the environment. In this short communication, we discuss quadruple neutrosophic numbers and their potential application for realistic modelling of physical systems, especially in the reliability assessment of engineering structures.
Category: Statistics

[240] viXra:1904.0333 [pdf] submitted on 2019-04-18 03:53:13

The Theorems of Rao--Blackwell and Lehmann--Scheffe, Revisited

Authors: Hazhir Homei
Comments: 5 Pages.

It has been stated in the literature that for finding uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator through the theorems of Rao-Blackwell and Lehmann-Scheffe, the sufficient statistic should be complete; otherwise the discussion and the way of finding uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator should be changed, since the sufficiency assumption in the Rao-Blackwell and Lehmann-Scheffe theorems limits its applicability. So, it seems that the sufficiency assumptions should be expressed in a way that the uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator be derivable via the Rao-Blackwell and Lehmann-Scheffe theorems.
Category: Statistics

[239] viXra:1903.0032 [pdf] submitted on 2019-03-02 13:41:22

Deriving Spin Signatures and the Components of Movement from Trackman Data for Pitcher Evaluation

Authors: Glenn Healey
Comments: 21 Pages.

We derive spin signatures and the components of movement from Trackman data.
Category: Statistics

[238] viXra:1901.0368 [pdf] submitted on 2019-01-25 12:02:20

Smoking is the Cause of Lung Cancer

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 26 pages. Copyright © 2019 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published 15.2.2019 by Journal of Drug Delivery and Therapeutics, 9(1-s), 148-160. https://doi.org/10.22270/jddt.v9i1-s.2273

Objective: The aim of this study is to re-evaluate the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. Methods: In order to clarify the relationship between cigarette smoking and lung cancer, a review and meta-analysis of appropriate studies with a total sample size of n = 48393 was conducted. The p-value was set to p < 0,05. Results. It was not possible to reject the null-hypothesis H0: without smoking no lung cancer. Furthermore, the null-hypothesis H0: No causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer was rejected. Conclusions Compared to the results from previous studies, the results of this study confirm previously published results. According the results of this study, without smoking no lung cancer. Smoking is the cause of lung cancer. Keywords: Smoking, lung cancer, causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[237] viXra:1901.0170 [pdf] submitted on 2019-01-12 11:17:48

Index of Unfairness

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: Comments: 63 pages. Copyright © 2019 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by

Objective: Objective scientific knowledge for many authors more valuable than true subjective belief is determined by research on primary data but a renewed analysis of already recorded or published data is common too. Ever since, an appropriate experimental or study design is an important and often a seriously underappreciated aspect of the informativeness and the scientific value of any (medical) study. The significance of study design for the reliability of the conclusions drawn and the ability to generalize the results from the sample investigated for the whole population cannot be underestimated. In contrast to an inappropriate statistical evaluation of a medical study, it is difficult to correct errors in study design after the study has been completed. Various mathematical aspects of study design are discussed in this article. Methods: In assessing the significance of a fair study design of a medical study, important measures of publication bias are introduced. Methods of data or publication bias analysis in different types of studies are illustrated through examples with fictive data. Formal mathematical requirements of a fair study design which can and should be fulfilled carefully with regard to the planning or evaluation of medical research are developed. Results. Various especially mathematical aspects of a fair study design are discussed in this article in detail. Depending on the particular question being asked, mathematical methods are developed which allow us to recognize data which are self-contradictory and to exclude these data from systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses. As a result, different individual studies can be summed up and evaluated with a higher degree of certainty. Conclusions This article is intended to give the reader guidance in evaluating the design of studies in medical research even ex post which should enable the reader to categorize medical studies better and to assess their scientific quality more accurately. Keywords: study design, quality, study, study type, measuring technique, publication bias
Category: Statistics

[236] viXra:1812.0180 [pdf] submitted on 2018-12-10 14:11:01

Some Neutrosophic Probability Distributions

Authors: Rafif Alhabib, Moustafa Mzher Ranna, Haitham Farah, A.A. Salama
Comments: 9 Pages.

In this paper, we introduce and study some neutrosophic probability distributions, The study is done through generalization of some classical probability distributions as Poisson distribution, Exponential distribution and Uniform distribution, this study opens the way for dealing with issues that follow the classical distributions and at the same time contain data not specified accurately.
Category: Statistics

[235] viXra:1811.0505 [pdf] submitted on 2018-11-29 14:45:29

Compressed Monte Carlo for Distributed Bayesian Inference

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira
Comments: 16 Pages.

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. Bayesian inference needs the approximation of complicated integrals involving the posterior distribution. For this purpose, Monte Carlo (MC) methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) algorithms, are often employed. In this work, we introduce a compressed MC (C-MC) scheme in order to compress the information obtained previously by MC sampling. The basic C-MC version is based on the stratification technique, well-known for variance reduction purposes. Deterministic C-MC schemes are also presented, which provide very good performance. The compression problem is strictly related to moment matching approach applied in different filtering methods, often known as Gaussian quadrature rules or sigma-point methods. The connections to herding algorithms and quasi-Monte Carlo perspective are also discussed. C-MC is particularly useful in a distributed Bayesian inference framework, when cheap and fast communications with a central processor are required. Numerical results confirm the benefit of the introduced schemes, outperforming the corresponding benchmark methods.
Category: Statistics

[234] viXra:1811.0412 [pdf] submitted on 2018-11-27 01:41:50

On the Distributional Expansions of Powered Extremes from Maxwell Distribution

Authors: Jianwen Huang, Jianjun Wang, Zhongquan Tan, Jingyao Hou, Hao Pu
Comments: 13 Pages.

In this paper, asymptotic expansions of the distributions and densities of powered extremes for Maxwell samples are considered. The results show that the convergence speeds of normalized partial maxima relies on the powered index. Additionally, compared with previous result, the convergence rate of the distribution of powered extreme from Maxwell samples is faster than that of its extreme.
Category: Statistics

[233] viXra:1811.0392 [pdf] submitted on 2018-11-24 12:05:42

Human Papillomavirus is the Cause of Human Prostate Cancer

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 31 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) has an important role in the oncogenesis of several malignant diseases. Some observational studies demonstrated the presence of HPV even in human prostate cancer (PC) while other studies failed on this point. The relationship between HPV infection and PC remains unclear. The aim of the present meta-analysis study is to investigate whether HPV serves as a cause or as the cause of PC. Methods: The PubMed database was searched for suitable articles. Previously published expert reviews and systematic meta-analysis were used as an additional source to identify appropriate articles. Articles selected for this meta-analysis should fulfill the following inclusion criteria: (a) no data access barrier, (b) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) DNA based identification of HPV. The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to prove the hypotheses whether being married is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) of PC. In other words, without being married no PC. The method of the conditio per quam relationship (sufficient condition) was used to prove the hypotheses if HPV is present in human prostate tissues then PC is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to prove the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between HPV and PC. Significance was indicated by a p-value (two sided) of less than 0.05. Results: In toto more than 136 000 000 cases and controls were re-analysed while more than 33 studies were considered for a meta-analysis. Several studies support the hypotheses without being married no PC. All the studies considered for a re-analyses support the null-hypotheses if HPV then PC, while the cause effect relationship between HPV and PC was highly significant. Conclusions: Human papillomavirus is the cause of human prostate cancer.
Category: Statistics

[232] viXra:1811.0323 [pdf] submitted on 2018-11-20 06:40:32

Neutrosophic Decision Making & Neutrosophic Decision Tree (Arabic Version).

Authors: A. A. Salama, Rafif Alhabib
Comments: 26 Pages.

In this research, we present neutrosophic decision-making, which is an extension of the classical decision-making process by expanding the data to cover the non-specific cases ignored by the classical logic, which in fact support the decision-making problem. The lack of information besides its inaccuracy is an important constraint affecting The effectiveness of the decision-making process, and we will rely on the decision tree model, which is one of the most powerful mathematical methods used to analyze many decisionmaking problems, where we extend it according to the neutrosophic logic by adding some indeterminate data (in the absence of probability) or by substituting the classical probabilities with the neutrosophic probabilities (in case of probability). We call this extended model the neutrosophic decision tree, which results in its use to reach the best decision among the available alternatives because it is based on data that is more general and accurate than the classical model.
Category: Statistics

[231] viXra:1810.0149 [pdf] submitted on 2018-10-09 08:44:17

Modeling Distributional Time Series by Transformations

Authors: Zhicheng Chen
Comments: 4 Pages.

Probability distributions play a very important role in many applications. This paper describes a modeling approach for distributional time series. Probability density functions (PDFs) are approximated by real-valued vectors via successively applying the log-quantile-density (LQD) transformation and functional principal component analysis (FPCA); state-space models (SSMs) for real-valued time series are then applied to model the evolution of PCA scores, corresponding results are mapped back to the PDF space by the inverse LQD transformation.
Category: Statistics

[230] viXra:1810.0143 [pdf] submitted on 2018-10-09 12:37:38

SITUATIONAL UNDERLYING VALUE (SUV) - "Proof of Principle" for a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and NCAA Men's College Basketball

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 126 Pages. Combines previously separate vixra entries 1809.0411 + 0410 + 0409 into one document.

In Situational Underlying Value (SUV) for Baseball, Football and Basketball: A Statistic to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men's college basketball was developed. This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men's College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance "in the clutch" vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different "traditional" statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and traditional statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader's conclusion based on t he results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[229] viXra:1810.0137 [pdf] submitted on 2018-10-10 01:45:17

A Third Note on Bell's Theorem

Authors: Han Geurdes
Comments: 3 Pages.

In the paper it is demonstrated that Bell's formula for {+1,-1} measurement functions is inconsistent.
Category: Statistics

[228] viXra:1810.0065 [pdf] submitted on 2018-10-06 03:13:03

Epstein Barr Virus and Atrial Fibrillation – a Causal Link?

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 17 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by Modern Health Science, 2019; 2(1): 1-15. https://doi.org/10.30560/mhs.v2n1p1

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is very frequent and clinically significant arrhythmia. The incidence of atrial fibrillation is continuously rising. Meanwhile several risk factors for AF development have been identified but the etiology is not cleared. Methods: A systematic review and re-analysis of studies which investigated the relationship between AF and some risk factors was conducted. The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship, the method of the conditio per quam relationship, the method of the exclusion relationship and the mathematical formula of the causal relationship k were used to proof the hypothesis. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analysed were able to provide direct and indirect evidence that AF is caused by a process of inflammation while a direct identification of the factor causing AF was not possible. Still, it appears to be very probable that Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is the cause of AF. Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is caused by an inflammatory process. Keywords: Epstein-Barr virus, atrial fibrillation, causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[227] viXra:1809.0577 [pdf] submitted on 2018-09-29 20:59:23

Situational Underlying Value (Suv) Statistic for Major League Baseball – Defense

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 55 Pages. Third in the SUV series, addressing defensive SUV (and revised pitching SUV) for major league baseball, including "proof of principle."

In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football, and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). [1] Based on the concept of “run expectancy,” it assigns an SUV to each base as a function of the number of outs, including a negative value for making an out. There, and in “Proof of Principle” for Situational Underlying Value (SUV) – A Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, [2] it was applied exclusively to hitters and pitchers. Its derivation is explained in Reference 1, with additional discussion provided in Reference 2. Reference 1 provides two example games to show how the SUVs accrue for each team’s hitters and pitchers. The goal of this third work, which includes “Proof of Principle” as in Reference 2, is to track the performance of a team’s individual fielders defensively, including an enhancement to the approach for pitching previously developed in Reference 2, over the same substantial portion of an entire season. One-third of the 2017 season, i.e., 54 games, have again been selected for the Seattle Mariners, starting with Game 002 and tracking every third game up through Game 161. The SUVs are based on the play-by-play descriptions provided in “Baseball Reference,” https://www.baseball-reference.com/. [3] Summary SUV analyses for all 54 games are provided below, with a roll-up of cumulative SUVs every six games. Also, the actual play-by-plays are included for every third game analyzed, starting from Game 005 (i.e., for Games 005, 014, 023, 032, 041, 050, 059, 068, 077, 086, 095, 104, 113, 122, 131, 140, 149 and 158), providing a total for 18 games. For the rest (which are only summarized), the reader should consult Reference 3. There is an important change to the above table for defensive tracking, also applied to the enhanced pitching analysis, namely the reversal of all the SUV signs. This enables “positive” defensive outcomes (outs) to be assigned positive SUVs, while “negative” outcomes (reaching base or advancing) are assigned negative SUVs. The assignment of defensive SUVs is somewhat more involved than that for hitting. Specific assignments, most frequently encountered, are presented below.
Category: Statistics

[226] viXra:1809.0044 [pdf] submitted on 2018-09-02 17:36:12

Stochastic Spline Functions with Unequal Time Steps

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 13 Pages.

A piece-wise quadratic spline is introduced as a time series coming with unequal time steps, and where the second derivative of the spline at the junction points is impacted by random Brownian motion. A measurement error is also introduced, and this changes the spline into semi-parametric regression. This makes a total of two dispersion parameters to be estimated by a proposed REML analysis that unitizes the K-matrix. The spline itself only has three location effects that are treated as fixed, and must be estimated. A proposed prediction of a future observation beyond the spline’s end point is presented, coming with a prediction error variance.
Category: Statistics

[225] viXra:1808.0101 [pdf] submitted on 2018-08-09 05:31:14

Boring Boolean Circuit

Authors: Thinh D. Nguyen
Comments: 2 Pages.

We survey the problem of deciding whether a given Boolean circuit is boring.
Category: Statistics

[224] viXra:1807.0249 [pdf] submitted on 2018-07-13 13:08:49

Gastric Cancer and Epstein-Barr Virus Infection. a Systematic Review of Ish Based Studies.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 22 Pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by Modern Health Science, 2018; Vol. 1, No. 2 ( https://j.ideasspread.org/index.php/mhs/article/view/160 )

Background: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has an important role in the oncogenesis of several malignant diseases. Reports demonstrated even the presence of Epstein-Barr virus in gastric carcinoma (GC). However, the pathogenic role of EBV in CG is uncertain. The present investigation was carried out to investigate a possible causal relationship between GC and EBV. Statistical Analysis: The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether gastric cancer is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) of the presence of EBV in human gastric tissues. In other words, without GC no EBV positivity in human stomach. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between gastric cancer and EBV. Significance was indicated by a p-value (two sided) of less than 0.05. Results: In toto 26 ISH based studies with a sample size of N = 11860 were re-analyzed. All the studies analyzed support the null-hypothesis without GC no EBV positivity in human gastric tissues. In other words, gastric cancer itself is a conditio sine qua on of EBV positivity in human gastric cancer while the cause effect relationship between gastric cancer and EBV was highly significant. Conclusions: Epstein-Barr virus in neither a cause or the cause of human gastric cancer. Keywords: Gastric cancer, Epstein-Barr virus, cause effect relationship, causality
Category: Statistics

[223] viXra:1807.0036 [pdf] submitted on 2018-07-01 09:04:41

Sunburn and Malignant Melanoma

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 25 Pages. pp. 25. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by

Background: Unfortunately, despite recent scientific advances the cause of malignant melanoma is not identified. The incidence of malignant melanoma increases and malignant melanoma continues to represent a significant individual and public health challenge. Objectives: In this systematic review studies were re-analyzed so that some new inferences can be drawn. Statistical Analysis: The method of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of human papillomavirus guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, if human papillomavirus is present, then malignant melanoma is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus and malignant melanoma. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analyzed support the null-hypothesis that the presence of human papillomavirus guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, human papillomavirus is a conditio per quam of malignant melanoma while the cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus and malignant melanoma was highly significant. Conclusions: Human papillomavirus is a sufficient condition of malignant melanoma. Human papillomavirus is a cause of malignant melanoma. Keywords: Human papillomavirus, malignant melanoma, cause effect relationship, causality
Category: Statistics

[222] viXra:1806.0411 [pdf] submitted on 2018-06-27 20:33:50

“PROOF of PRINCIPLE” for Situational Underlying Value (Suv) – a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and Ncaa Men’s College Basketball (Part 1)

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 42 Pages. Part 1 of Three-Part Document, Separated due to Size Limitations

NOTE: Due to size limitations, this has been published in three separate parts, with the abstract and references to all three parts included with each. This is Part 1, directed exclusively to Major League Baseball. In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men’s College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance “in the clutch” vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different “traditional” statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and “traditional” statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader’s conclusion based on the results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[221] viXra:1806.0410 [pdf] submitted on 2018-06-27 20:36:25

“PROOF of PRINCIPLE” for Situational Underlying Value (Suv) – a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and Ncaa Men’s College Basketball (Part 2)

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 59 Pages. Part 2 of Three-Part Document, Separated due to Size Limitation

NOTE: Due to size limitations, this has been published in three separate parts, with the abstract and references to all three parts included with each. This is Part 2, directed exclusively to Professional Football (NFL). In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men’s College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance “in the clutch” vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different “traditional” statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and “traditional” statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader’s conclusion based on the results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[220] viXra:1806.0409 [pdf] submitted on 2018-06-27 20:38:10

“PROOF of PRINCIPLE” for Situational Underlying Value (Suv) – a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and Ncaa Men’s College Basketball (Part 3)

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 31 Pages. Part 3 of Three-Part Document, Separated due to Size Limitation

NOTE: Due to size limitations, this has been published in three separate parts, with the abstract and references to all three parts included with each. This is Part 3, directed exclusively to NCAA Men’s College Basketball. In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men’s College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance “in the clutch” vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different “traditional” statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and “traditional” statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader’s conclusion based on the results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[219] viXra:1806.0114 [pdf] submitted on 2018-06-09 17:02:01

Studying the Random Variables According to Neutrosophic Logic. ( Arabic )

Authors: Rafif Alhabib, Moustaf Amzherranna, Haitham Farah, A.A. Salama
Comments: 23 Pages.

We present in this paper the neutrosophic randomized variables, which are a generalization of the classical random variables obtained from the application of the neutrosophic logic (a new nonclassical logic which was founded by the American philosopher and mathematical Florentin Smarandache, which he introduced as a generalization of fuzzy logic especially the intuitionistic fuzzy logic ) on classical random variables. The neutrosophic random variable is changed because of the randomization, the indeterminacy and the values it takes, which represent the possible results and the possible indeterminacy.Then we classify the neutrosophic randomized variables into two types of discrete and continuous neutrosophic random variables and we define the expected value and variance of the neutrosophic random variable then offer some illustrative examples.
Category: Statistics

[218] viXra:1806.0016 [pdf] submitted on 2018-06-02 13:36:36

Human Cytomegalovirus: The Cause Of IgA Nephropathy.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 15 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by:.

Objective: The present publication investigates the relationship between the presence of Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) in renal tissue and IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). Methods: A systematic review and re-analysis of studies which investigated the relationship between HCMV and IgAN was conducted aimed to answer the following question. Is there a cause-effect relationship between HCMV and IgAN? The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of HCMV guarantees the presence of IgAN. In other words, without HCMV no IgAN. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypotheses is, whether there is a cause-effect relationship between HCMV and IgAN. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analysed were able to provide strict evidence that HCMV is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non), a sufficient condition and a necessary and sufficient condition of IgAN. Furthermore, the cause-effect relationship between HCMV and IgAN (N=37, k =+0.514619883, p value (k) =0.001746216) was highly significant. Conclusions: On the basis of published data and ongoing research, sufficient evidence is given to conclude that HCMV is the cause of IgA Nephropathy. Keywords: Cytomegalovirus, IgA Nephropathy, Causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[217] viXra:1804.0390 [pdf] submitted on 2018-04-25 13:20:56

Human Papillomavirus – the Cause of Prostate Cancer

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 9 Pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by:.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies investigated the relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and the risk of prostate cancer (PC) and have suggested conflicting results about this relationship. However, the relationship between HPV infection and PC remains unclear. The aim of the present meta-analysis study is to investigate whether HPV serves as a cause of PC. METHODS: The PubMed database was searched for suitable articles. Previously published expert review and systematic review were used as an additional source to identify appropriate articles. Articles selected for this meta-analysis should fulfil the following inclusion criteria: (a) no data access barrier (b) PCR DNA based identification of HPV. RESULTS: The studies analysed were able provide evidence that without being married no (HPV infection of a men/prostate cancer).The X² value of the total 20 articles indicated a significant causal relationship between HPV and PC. In other words, if HPV infection of human prostate, then prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, Human papillomavirus is the cause of prostate cancer. KEYWORDS: Human papillomavirus, prostate cancer, causal relationship, causality
Category: Statistics

[216] viXra:1804.0362 [pdf] submitted on 2018-04-24 21:30:21

A Boundary Value Problem of the Partial Differential-Integral Equations and Their Applications

Authors: Kim Ju Gyong, Ju Kwang Son
Comments: 13 Pages.

We study the boundary value problem of a partial differential-integral equations that have many applications in finance and insurance. We will solve a boundary value problem of the partial differential-integral equations by using the solution of conjugate equation and reflection method and apply it to determine the probability of company bankruptcy in insurance mathematics.
Category: Statistics

[215] viXra:1804.0158 [pdf] submitted on 2018-04-11 22:04:50

On the Representation Theorem for the Stochastic Differential eq Uations with Fractional Brownian Motion and Jump by Probabili ty Measures Transform

Authors: Kim Ju Gyong,Ju Kwang Son
Comments: 7 Pages.

In this paper we prove Girsanov theorem for fractional Brownian motion and jump measures and consider representation form for the stochastic differential equations in transfer Probability space.
Category: Statistics

[214] viXra:1804.0143 [pdf] submitted on 2018-04-09 23:13:20

Topological Detection of Wideband Anomalies

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 12 Pages.

Successive real-valued measurements of any physical chaotic oscillator can serve as entropy inputs to a random number generator (RNG) with correspondingly many whole numbered outputs of arbitrarily small bias, assuming that no correlation exists between successive such measurements apart from what would be implied by their probability distribution function (AKA the oscillator’s analog “generator”, which is constant over time and thus asymptotically discoverable). Given some historical measurements (a “snapshot”) of such an oscillator, we can then train the RNG to expect inputs distributed uniformally among the real intervals defined by those measurements and spanning the entire real line. Each interval thus implies an index in sorted order, starting with the leftmost which maps to zero; the RNG does nothing more than to perform this mapping. We can then replace that first oscillator with a second one presumed to abide by the same generator. It would then be possible to characterize the accuracy of that presumption by quantifying the ensuing change in quality of the RNG. Randomness quality is most accurately expressed via dyspoissonism, which is a normalized equivalent of the log of the number of ways in which a particular distribution of frequencies (occurrence counts) of masks (whole numbers) can occur. Thus the difference in dyspoissonism between the RNG output sets will serve to estimate the information divergence between theirrespective generators, which in turn constitutes a ranking quantifier for the purpose of anomaly detection.
Category: Statistics

[213] viXra:1803.0725 [pdf] submitted on 2018-03-30 08:43:52

Foundation of Neutrosophic Crisp Probability Theory

Authors: Rafif Alhabib, Moustaf Amzherranna, Haitham Farah, A.A. Salama
Comments: 13 Pages.

This paper deals with the application of Neutrosophic Crisp sets (which is a generalization of Crisp sets) on the classical probability, from the construction of the Neutrosophic sample space to the Neutrosophic crisp events reaching the definition of Neutrosophic classical probability for these events. Then we offer some of the properties of this probability, in addition to some important theories related to it. We also come into the definition of conditional probability and Bayes theory according to the Neutrosophic Crisp sets, and eventually offer some important illustrative examples. This is the link between the concept of Neutrosophic for classical events and the neutrosophic concept of fuzzy events. These concepts can be applied in computer translators and decision-making theory.
Category: Statistics

[212] viXra:1803.0648 [pdf] submitted on 2018-03-26 03:37:43

Epstein-Barr Virus is the Cause of Multiple Sclerosis.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 24 Pages. pp. 28. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by: International Journal of Current Medical and Pharmaceutical Research ( http://journalcmpr.com/issues/epstein-barr-virus-cause-multiple-sclerosis )

Objective: This systematic review assesses once again the causal relationship between Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and multiple sclerosis (MS) for gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of this disease. Methods: A systematic review and meat-analysis of some studies is provided aimed to answer among other questions the following question. Is there a cause effect relation-ship between Epstein-Barr virus and multiple sclerosis? The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis without Epstein-Barr virus no multiple sclerosis. In other words, if multiple sclerosis is present, then Epstein-Barr virus is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and multiple sclerosis. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Result: The studies analyzed were able to provide evidence that Epstein-Barr virus is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) of multiple sclerosis. Furthermore, the studies analyzed provide impressive evidence of a cause-effect relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and multiple sclerosis. Conclusion: Epstein-Barr virus the cause of multiple sclerosis. Keywords Epstein-Barr virus, multiple sclerosis, cause effect relationship, causality
Category: Statistics

[211] viXra:1803.0399 [pdf] submitted on 2018-03-21 22:17:16

Causal Inference for Survival Analysis

Authors: Vikas Ramachandra
Comments: 11 Pages.

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this purpose. A real world healthcare dataset was used with about 1800 patients with breast cancer, which has multiple patient covariates as well as disease free survival days (DFS) and a death event binary indicator (y). We use the type of cancer curative intervention as the treatment variable (T=0 or 1, binary treatment case in our example). The algorithm is a 2 step approach. In step 1, we estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using a causalTree with the DFS as the dependent variable. Next, in step 2, for each selected leaf of the causalTree with distinctly different average treatment effect (with respect to survival), we fit a survival forest to all the patients in that leaf, one forest each for treatment T=0 as well as T=1 to get estimated patient level survival curves for each treatment (more generally, any model can be used at this step). Then, we subtract the patient level survival curves to get the differential survival curve for a given patient, to compare the survival function as a result of the 2 treatments. The path to a selected leaf also gives us the combination of patient features and their values which are causally important for the treatment effect difference at the leaf.
Category: Statistics

[210] viXra:1802.0150 [pdf] submitted on 2018-02-12 07:47:03

Elements of Geostatistics

Authors: Abdelmajid Ben Hadj Salem
Comments: 47 Pages. In French.

It is a short lectures of Geostatistics giving some elements of this field for third-year students of the Geomatics license of the Faculty of Sciences of Tunis.
Category: Statistics

[209] viXra:1802.0080 [pdf] submitted on 2018-02-08 06:08:45

A Geometric-Probabilistic Problem About the Lengths of the Segments Intersected in Straights that Randomly Cut a Triangle.

Authors: Jesús Álvarez Lobo
Comments: 6 Pages. Journal Citation: arXiv:1602.03005v1

If a line cuts randomly two sides of a triangle, the length of the segment determined by the points of intersection is also random. The object of this study, applied to a particular case, is to calculate the probability that the length of such segment is greater than a certain value.
Category: Statistics

[208] viXra:1801.0423 [pdf] submitted on 2018-01-31 15:05:32

Parvovirus B19 the Cause of Systemic Sclerosis.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 28 Pages. pp. 28. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by:

Objective: Parvovirus B19 appears to be associated with several diseases, one among those appears to be systemic sclerosis. Still, there is no evidence of a causal link be-tween parvovirus B19 and systemic sclerosis. Methods: To explore the cause-effect relationship between Parvovirus B19 and sys-temic sclerosis, a systematic review and re-analysis of studies available and suitable was performed. The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis without Parvovirus B19 infection no systemic sclerosis. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between Parvovirus B19 and systemic sclerosis. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05 Result: The data analyzed support the Null-hypothesis that without Parvovirus B19 infection no systemic sclerosis. In the same respect, the studies analyzed provide evi-dence of a (highly) significant cause effect relationship between Parvovirus B19 and systemic sclerosis. Conclusion: This study supports the conclusion that Parvovirus B19 is the cause of systemic sclerosis. Keywords Parvovirus B19, systemic sclerosis, causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[207] viXra:1801.0307 [pdf] submitted on 2018-01-24 02:06:11

A Nonconvex Penalty Function with Integral Convolution Approximation for Compressed Sensing

Authors: Feng Zhang, Jianjun Wang, Wendong Wang, Jianwen Huang, Changan Yuan
Comments: 24 Pages.

In this paper, we propose a novel nonconvex penalty function for compressed sensing using integral convolution approximation. It is well known that an unconstrained optimization criterion based on $\ell_1$-norm easily underestimates the large component in signal recovery. Moreover, most methods either perform well only under the measurement matrix satisfied restricted isometry property (RIP) or the highly coherent measurement matrix, which both can not be established at the same time. We introduce a new solver to address both of these concerns by adopting a frame of the difference between two convex functions with integral convolution approximation. What's more, to better boost the recovery performance, a weighted version of it is also provided. Experimental results suggest the effectiveness and robustness of our methods through several signal reconstruction examples in term of success rate and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).
Category: Statistics

[206] viXra:1801.0171 [pdf] submitted on 2018-01-14 16:15:21

Fusobacterium (Nucleatum) the Cause of Human Colorectal Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 37 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Horandstrasse, Jever, Germany. Published by: Journal of Biosciences and Medicines Vol.6 No.3, March 14, 2018

Objective: Accumulating evidence indicates that the gut microbiome has an increas-ingly important role in human disease and health. Fusobacterium nucleatum has been identified in several studies as the leading gut bacterium which is present in colorectal cancer (CRC). Still it is not clear if Fusobacterium plays a causal role. Methods: To explore the cause-effect relationship between Fusobacterium nucleatum and colorectal cancer, a systematic review and re-analysis of studies published was performed. The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis without Fusobacterium nucleatum infection no colorectal cancer. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between Fusobacterium nucleatum and colorectal cancer. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05 Result: The data analyzed support the Null-hypothesis that without Fusobacterium nucleatum infection no colorectal cancer. In the same respect, the studies analyzed provide highly significant cause effect relationship between Fusobacterium nucleatum and colorectal cancer. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that Fusobacterium (nucleatum) is the cause of colorectal cancer.
Category: Statistics

[205] viXra:1801.0148 [pdf] submitted on 2018-01-12 23:14:43

Life Expectancy – Lying with Statistics

Authors: Robert Bennett
Comments: 14 Pages.

Biased statistics can arise from computational errors, belief in non-existent or unproven correlations ...or acceptance of premises proven invalid scientifically. It is the latter that will be examined here for the case of human life expectancy, whose values are well-known...and virtually never challenged as to their basic assumptions. Whether the false premises are accidental, a case of overlooking the obvious...or if they may be deliberate distortions serving a subliminal agenda.... is beyond the scope of this analysis.
Category: Statistics

[204] viXra:1801.0045 [pdf] submitted on 2018-01-04 23:57:59

Benchmarking and Improving Recovery of Number of Topics in Latent Dirichlet Allocation Models

Authors: Jason Hou-Liu
Comments: Pages.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a generative model describing the observed data as being composed of a mixture of underlying unobserved topics, as introduced by Blei et al. (2003). A key hyperparameter of LDA is the number of underlying topics k, which must be estimated empirically in practice. Selecting the appropriate value of k is essentially selecting the correct model to represent the data; an important issue concerning the goodness of fit. We examine in the current work a series of metrics from literature on a quantitative basis by performing benchmarks against a generated dataset with a known value of k and evaluate the ability of each metric to recover the true value, varying over multiple levels of topic resolution in the Dirichlet prior distributions. Finally, we introduce a new metric and heuristic for estimating kand demonstrate improved performance over existing metrics from the literature on several benchmarks.
Category: Statistics

[203] viXra:1712.0504 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-18 15:14:48

Essay on Statistics

Authors: Samir Ait-Amrane
Comments: 12 Pages. In French

In this paper, we will explain some basic notions of statistics, first in the case of one variable, then in the case of two variables, while organizing ideas and drawing a parallel between some statistical and probabilistic formulas that are alike. We will also say a brief word about econometrics, time series and stochastic processes and provide some bibliographical references where these notions are explained clearly.
Category: Statistics

[202] viXra:1712.0499 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-18 06:33:01

A Novel Closed Form for Truncated Distributions with Integer Parameters & Hyper-Normal Probabilistic-Weighted Correlation

Authors: Jason Lind
Comments: 2 Pages.

Development a novel closed form, for integer bounds, of Truncated Distribution and an application of that to a weighting function that favors values further from the origin.
Category: Statistics

[201] viXra:1712.0429 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-14 01:05:01

Stochastic Functions of Blueshift vs. Redshift

Authors: Cres Huang
Comments: Pages.

Viewing the random motions of objects, an observer might think it is 50-50 chances that an object would move toward or away. It might be intuitive, however, it is far from the truth. This study derives the probability functions of Doppler blueshift and redshift effect of signal detection. The fact is, Doppler redshift detection is highly dominating in space, surface, and linear observation. Under the conditions of no quality loss of radiation over distance, and the observer has perfect vision; It is more than 92% probability of detecting redshift, in three-dimensional observation, 87% surface, and 75\% linear. In cosmic observation, only 7.81% of the observers in the universe will detect blueshift of radiations from any object, on average. The remaining 92.19% of the observers in the universe will detect redshift. It it universal for all observers, aliens or Earthlings at all locations of the universe.
Category: Statistics

[200] viXra:1712.0244 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-07 05:24:57

A Review of Multiple Try MCMC Algorithms for Signal Processing

Authors: Luca Martino
Comments: 47 Pages.

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of a-posteriori estimators which are often expressed as complicated multi-dimensional integrals. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and Monte Carlo methods are the only feasible approach. A very powerful class of Monte Carlo techniques is formed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. They generate a Markov chain such that its stationary distribution coincides with the target posterior density. In this work, we perform a thorough review of MCMC methods using multiple candidates in order to select the next state of the chain, at each iteration. With respect to the classical Metropolis-Hastings method, the use of multiple try techniques foster the exploration of the sample space. We present different Multiple Try Metropolis schemes, Ensemble MCMC methods, Particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and the Delayed Rejection Metropolis technique. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and dierences among the different methods, and compare them by numerical simulations.
Category: Statistics

[199] viXra:1712.0110 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-04 22:02:28

A Possible Alternative Model of Probability Theory?

Authors: D Williams
Comments: 8 Pages.

A possible alternative (and non-standard) model of probability is presented based on non-standard "dx-less" integrals. The possibility of other such models is discussed.
Category: Statistics

[198] viXra:1712.0018 [pdf] submitted on 2017-12-03 02:40:26

Helicobacter Pylori is the Cause of Human Gastric Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 50 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukcic, Jever, Germany. Published by: Modern Health Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2018. https://doi.org/10.30560/mhs.v1n1p43

Objective: Many times a positive relationship between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric cancer has been reported, yet findings are inconsistent. Methods: A literature search in PubMed was performed to re-evaluate the relationship between Helicobacter pylori (HP) and carcinoma of human stomach. Case control studies with a least 500 participants were consider for a review and meta-analysis. The meta-/re-analysis was conducted using conditio-sine qua non relationship and the causal relationship k. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Result: All studies analyzed provide impressive evidence of a cause effect relationship between H. pylori and gastric cancer (GC). Two very great studies were able to make the proof that H. pylori is a necessary condition of human gastric cancer. In other words, without H. pylori infection no human gastric cancer. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is the cause of gastric carcinoma.
Category: Statistics

[197] viXra:1711.0437 [pdf] submitted on 2017-11-26 08:58:37

Human Papillomavirus - A Cause Of Human Prostate Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 57 pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Horandstrasse, Jever, Germany. Published by:

Objective: A series of different studies detected Human papillomavirus (HPV) in malignant and nonmalignant prostate tissues. However, the results of studies on the relationship between HPV infections and prostate cancer (PCa) remain controversial. Methods: A systematic review and re-analysis of some polymerase-chain reaction (PCR) based case-control studies was performed aimed to answer the following question: Is there a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and prostatic cancer? The method of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis: if presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in human prostate tissues then presence of prostate carcinoma. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and prostate cancer. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Result: Only one of the studies analyzed failed to provide evidence that there is a cause-effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and prostate cancer. Two studies were highly significant on this point. The majority of the studies analyzed support the hypothesis that human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sufficient condition of prostate cancer. In other words, if presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in human prostate tissues then presence of prostate cancer. Conclusion: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a cause of prostate cancer.
Category: Statistics

[196] viXra:1711.0339 [pdf] submitted on 2017-11-18 05:44:37

Human Papillomavirus - The Cause Of Human Cervical Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 56 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by: 2018, Journal of Biosciences and Medicines Vol.6 No.4, April 30, 2018

Objective: Cervical cancer is the second most prevalent cancer in females worldwide. Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is regarded as the main risk factor of cervical cancer. Our objective was to conduct a qualitative systematic review of some case-control studies to examine the role of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the development of human cervical cancer beyond any reasonable doubt. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and re-analysis of some impressive key studies aimed to answer the following question. Is there a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer? The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of cervical carcinoma. In other words, if human papillomavirus (HPV) is present, then cervical carcinoma is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical carcinoma. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Result: One study was able to provide strict evidence that human papillomavirus (HPV) is a conditio sine qua non (a necessary condition) of cervical carcinoma while the other studies analyzed failed on this point. The studies analyzed provide impressive evidence of a cause-effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical carcinoma. Conclusion: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the cause of cervical carcinoma.
Category: Statistics

[195] viXra:1711.0326 [pdf] submitted on 2017-11-15 10:17:45

A New Definition Of Standard Deviation. ISSN 1751-3030

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has detailed a novel definition of Standard Deviation.
Category: Statistics

[194] viXra:1711.0277 [pdf] submitted on 2017-11-11 10:41:48

Surround Codes, Densification, and Entropy Scan Performance

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 11 Pages.

Herein we present the “surround” function, which is intended to produce a set of “surround codes” which enhance the sparsity of integer sets which have discrete derivatives of lesser Shannon entropy than the sets themselves. In various cases, the surround function is expected to provide further entropy reduction beyond that provided by straightforward delta (difference) encoding alone.

We then present the simple concept of “densification”, which facilitates the elimination of entropy overhead due to masks (symbols) which were considered possible but do not actually occur in a given mask list (set of symbols).

Finally we discuss the ramifications of these techniques for the sake of enhancing the speed and sensitivity of various entropy scans.


Category: Statistics

[193] viXra:1711.0248 [pdf] submitted on 2017-11-08 10:41:26

Total Intra Similarity And Dissimilarity Measure For The Values Taken By A Parameter Of Concern. {Version 2}. ISSN 1751-3030

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 3 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has detailed a novel method of finding the ‘Total Intra Similarity And Dissimilarity Measure For The Values Taken By A Parameter Of Concern’. The advantage of such a measure is that using this measure we can clearly distinguish the contribution of Intra aspect variation and Inter aspect variation when both are bound to occur in a given phenomenon of concern. This measure provides the same advantages as that provided by the popular F-Statistic measure.
Category: Statistics

[192] viXra:1710.0311 [pdf] submitted on 2017-10-28 05:14:06

Human Papilloma Virus a Cause of Malignant Melanoma?

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 11 pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by:

Background: The aim of this study is to work out a possible relationship between hu-man papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Objectives: This systematic review and re-analysis of Roussaki-Schulze et al. availa-ble retrospective study of twenty-eight melanoma biopsy specimens and of the control group of 6 patients is performed so that some new inference can be drawn. Materials and methods: Roussaki-Schulze et al. obtained data from twenty-eight human melanoma biopsy specimens and from six healthy individuals. The presence and types of HPV DNA within biopsy specimens was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Statistical Analysis: In contrast to Roussaki-Schulze et al., the meth-od of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis that the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant mel-anoma. In other words, if human papillomavirus (HPV) is present, then malignant melanoma must also be present. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship be-tween human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Significance was indi-cated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: Based on the data published by Roussaki-Schulze et al. we were able to make evidence that the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, human papillomavirus (HPV) is a conditio per quam of malignant melanoma. Contrary to expectation, the data of Roussaki-Schulze et al. based on a very small sample size failed to provide significant evidence that human papillomavirus (HPV) is a cause or the cause of malignant melanoma. Conclusions: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a conditio per quam of malignant melanoma.
Category: Statistics

[191] viXra:1710.0261 [pdf] submitted on 2017-10-22 23:43:04

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Matching via Entropy Divergences

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 20 Pages. Released under the following license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

The Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) quantifies the “information distance” between a pair of probability distributions. (A more generalized version, which is beyond the scope of this paper, is given in [1]. It extends this divergence to arbitrarily many such distributions. Related divergences are presented in [2], which is an excellent summary of existing work.) A couple of novel applications for this divergence are presented herein, both of which involving sets of whole numbers constrained by some nonzero maximum value. (We’re primarily concerned with discrete applications of the JSD, although it’s defined for analog variables.) The first of these, which we can call the “Jensen-Shannon divergence transform” (JSDT), involves a sliding “sweep window” whose JSD with respect to some fixed “needle” is evaluated at each step as said window moves from left to right across a superset called a “haystack”. The second such application, which we can call the “Jensen-Shannon exodivergence transform” (JSET), measures the JSD between a sweep window and an “exosweep”, that is, the haystack minus said window, at all possible locations of the latter. The JSET turns out to be exceptionally good at detecting anomalous contiguous subsets of a larger set of whole numbers. We then investigate and attempt to improve upon the shortcomings of the JSD and the related Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD).
Category: Statistics

[190] viXra:1710.0243 [pdf] submitted on 2017-10-22 16:38:41

Mathematical Probabilistic Closure

Authors: Paris Samuel Miles-Brenden
Comments: 3 Pages. None.

None.
Category: Statistics

[189] viXra:1709.0359 [pdf] submitted on 2017-09-23 21:26:31

A Note on the Block Restricted Isometry Property Condition

Authors: Jianwen Huang, Jianjun Wang, Wendong Wang
Comments: 12 Pages.

In this work, the sufficient condition for the recovery of block sparse signals that satisfy $b=\Phi x+\xi$ is investigated. We prove that every block s-sparse signal can be reconstructed by the $l_2/l_1$-minimization method in the noise-free situation and is stably reconstructed in the noisy measurement situation, if the sensing matrix fulfils the restricted isometry property with $\delta_{ts|\mathcal{I}}<t/(4-t)$ as $0<t<4/3$, $ts\geq2.$
Category: Statistics

[188] viXra:1708.0118 [pdf] submitted on 2017-08-11 06:30:03

Centroid of A Given Set Of Numbers In Any Prime Metric Basis Of Concern

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 1 Page.

In this research investigation, the author has detailed a Novel Technique of finding the Centroid of a given Set of Numbers in Any Prime Metric Basis of concern.
Category: Statistics

[187] viXra:1708.0113 [pdf] submitted on 2017-08-11 00:57:36

Centroid Of A Given Set Of Numbers In Prime Metric Basis

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 1 Page.

In this Technical Note, the author has detailed the evaluation of the Centroid of a given set of numbers in Prime Metric Basis.
Category: Statistics

[186] viXra:1707.0315 [pdf] submitted on 2017-07-24 15:57:44

Imputing Missing Distributions by LQD Transformation and RKHS-Based Functional Regression

Authors: Zhicheng Chen
Comments: 6 Pages.

Data loss is a big problem in many online monitoring systems due to various reasons. Copula-based approaches are effective imputation methods for missing data imputation; however, such methods are highly dependent on a reliable distribution of missing data. This article proposed a functional regression approach for missing probability density function (PDF) imputation. PDFs are first transformed to a Hilbert space by the log quantile density (LQD) transformation. The transformed results of the response PDFs are approximated by the truncated Karhunen–Loève representation. Corresponding representation in the Hilbert space of a missing PDF is estimated by a vector-on-function regression model in reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), then mapping back to the density space by the inverse LQD transformation to obtain an imputation for the missing PDF. To address errors caused by the numerical integration in the inverse LQD transformation, original PDFs are aided by a PDF of uniform distribution. The effect of the added uniform distribution in the imputed result of a missing PDF can be separated by the warping function-based PDF estimation technique.
Category: Statistics

[185] viXra:1707.0269 [pdf] submitted on 2017-07-19 19:24:50

Statistical Methods in Astronomy

Authors: James P. Long, Rafael S. De Souza
Comments: 9 Pages. To apper in Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online

We present a review of data types and statistical methods often encountered in astronomy. The aim is to provide an introduction to statistical applications in astronomy for statisticians and computer scientists. We highlight the complex, often hierarchical, nature of many astronomy inference problems and advocate for cross-disciplinary collaborations to address these challenges.
Category: Statistics

[184] viXra:1706.0551 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-30 03:09:09

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion {File Closing Version+2} ISSN 1751-3030

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 7 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1] (please see the addendum of [1] as well).
Category: Statistics

[183] viXra:1706.0379 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-19 00:46:33

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion {File Closing Version}

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 7 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1] (please see the addendum of [1] as well).
Category: Statistics

[182] viXra:1706.0295 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-16 05:25:45

One Step Forecasting Model (Advanced Model - Version 5)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented an Advanced Forecasting Model.
Category: Statistics

[181] viXra:1706.0279 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-12 12:58:17

Statistical Characterization of the Time to Reach Peak Heat Release Rate for Nuclear Power Plant Electrical Enclosure Fires

Authors: Raymond Gallucci
Comments: 10 Pages.

Since publication of NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), EPRI/NRC-RES Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities in 2005, phenomenological modeling of fire growth to peak heat release rate (HRR) for electrical enclosure fires in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has typically assumed an average 12-minute rise time. One previous analysis using the data from NUREG/CR-6850 from which this estimate derived (Gallucci, “Statistical Characterization of Cable Electrical Failure Temperatures Due to Fire, with Simulation of Failure Probabilities”) indicated that the time to peak HRR could be represented by a gamma distribution with alpha (shape) and beta (scale) parameters of 8.66 and 1.31, respectively. Completion of the test program by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) for electrical enclosure heat release rates, documented in NUREG/CR-7197, Heat Release Rates of Electrical Enclosure Fires (HELEN-FIRE) in 2016, has provided substantially more data from which to characterize this growth time to peak HRR. From these, the author develops probabilistic distributions that enhance the original NUREG/CR-6850 results for both qualified (Q) and unqualified cables (UQ). The mean times to peak HRR are 13.3 and 10.1 min for Q and UQ cables, respectively, with a mean of 12.4 min when all data are combined, confirming that the original NUREG/CR-6850 estimate of 12 min was quite reasonable. Via statistical-probabilistic analysis, the author shows that the time to peak HRR for Q and UQ cables can again be well represented by gamma distributions with alpha and beta parameters of 1.88 and 7.07, and 3.86 and 2.62, respectively. Working with the gamma distribution for All cables given the two cable types, the author performs simulations demonstrating that manual non-suppression probabilities, on average, are 30% and 10% higher than the use of a 12-min point estimate when the fire is assumed to be detected at its start and halfway between its start and the time it reaches its peak, respectively. This suggests that adopting a probabilistic approach enables more realistic modeling of this particular fire phenomenon (growth time).
Category: Statistics

[180] viXra:1706.0191 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-15 02:21:37

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion {Latest Super Ultimate Version}

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 10 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1] (please see the addendum of [1] as well).
Category: Statistics

[179] viXra:1706.0190 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-15 03:22:48

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion {Latest Correct Version}

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 8 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1] (please see the addendum of [1] as well).
Category: Statistics

[178] viXra:1706.0017 [pdf] submitted on 2017-06-03 04:27:45

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion (New Version 4)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 10 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[177] viXra:1705.0463 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-30 05:50:38

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion (New Version 3)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 14 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[176] viXra:1705.0407 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-28 23:37:47

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion (New Version 2)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 13 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[175] viXra:1705.0402 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-28 04:09:15

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion (New Version)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 12 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[174] viXra:1705.0396 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-28 01:50:06

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure With Error Formulation Included

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 8 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[173] viXra:1705.0296 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-20 04:45:05

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 3 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[172] viXra:1705.0128 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-07 09:59:15

The Recursive Past And Future Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Similarity Measure And Its Series Considered To Exhaustion

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Similarity Measure and its series considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[171] viXra:1705.0127 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-07 11:13:19

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda-Damayanthi Similarity Measure Considered To Exhaustion

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation and a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Similarity Measure considered to Exhaustion [1].
Category: Statistics

[170] viXra:1705.0106 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-05 03:43:32

The Recursive Future And Past Equation Based On The Ananda Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Future Equation based on the Ananda-Damayanthi Normalized Similarity Measure [1].
Category: Statistics

[169] viXra:1705.0098 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-03 13:47:48

Measuring Pitcher Similarity: Technical Details

Authors: G. Healey, S. Zhao, D. Brooks
Comments: 6 Pages.

Given the speed and movement for pitches thrown by a set of pitchers, we develop a measure of pitcher similarity.
Category: Statistics

[168] viXra:1705.0097 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-03 13:55:04

Most Similar Pitcher Match Tables for 2016

Authors: G. Healey, S. Zhao, D. Brooks
Comments: 7 Pages.

Tables of the most similar pitcher matches for 2016.
Category: Statistics

[167] viXra:1705.0093 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-04 04:36:02

Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling

Authors: L. Martino
Comments: 7 Pages.

Monte Carlo (MC) methods have become very popular in signal processing during the past decades. The adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithms are well-known MC technique which draw efficiently independent samples from univariate target densities. The ARS schemes yield a sequence of proposal functions that converge toward the target, so that the probability of accepting a sample approaches one. However, sampling from the proposal pdf becomes more computational demanding each time it is updated. We propose the Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling (PARS) method, where a better trade-off between acceptance rate and proposal complexity is obtained. Thus, the resulting algorithm is faster than the standard ARS approach.
Category: Statistics

[166] viXra:1705.0037 [pdf] submitted on 2017-05-03 11:21:26

The Recusrive Past Equation. The Recursive Future Equation

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Recursive Past Equation. Also, a Recursive Future Equation is presented.
Category: Statistics

[165] viXra:1704.0383 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-28 23:11:55

One Step Forecasting Model {Simple Model} (Version 6)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 4 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented two Forecasting Models
Category: Statistics

[164] viXra:1704.0382 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-28 23:39:19

One Step Forecasting Model {Advanced Model} (Version 3)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 6 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented two Forecasting Models.
Category: Statistics

[163] viXra:1704.0371 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-27 23:10:31

One Step Forecasting Model {Simple Model} (Version 5)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Forecasting Model
Category: Statistics

[162] viXra:1704.0370 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-27 23:45:03

One Step Forecasting Model {Advanced Model} (Version 6)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 3 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented an Advanced Forecasting Model.
Category: Statistics

[161] viXra:1704.0368 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-28 02:54:24

One Step Forecasting Model {Advanced Model} (Version 2)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 3 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented an Advanced Forecasting Model.
Category: Statistics

[160] viXra:1704.0344 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-26 06:16:55

One Step Forecasting Model {Version 4}

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 4 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented two forecasting models.
Category: Statistics

[159] viXra:1704.0332 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-24 23:04:13

One Step Forecasting Model {Version 3}

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented two one step forecasting models.
Category: Statistics

[158] viXra:1704.0314 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-24 04:51:58

One Step Forecasting Model (Version 2)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented two Forecasting Models.
Category: Statistics

[157] viXra:1704.0277 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-22 03:09:39

An Indirect Nonparametric Regression Method for One-Dimensional Continuous Distributions Using Warping Functions

Authors: Zhicheng Chen
Comments: 4 Pages.

Distributions play a very important role in many applications. Inspired by the newly developed warping transformation of distributions, an indirect nonparametric distribution to distribution regression method is proposed in this article for predicting correlated one-dimensional continuous probability density functions.
Category: Statistics

[156] viXra:1704.0246 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-19 20:55:22

Remark On Variance Bounds

Authors: R. Sharma, R. Bhandari
Comments: 5 Pages.

It is shown that the formula for the variance of combined series yields surprisingly simple proofs of some well known variance bounds.
Category: Statistics

[155] viXra:1704.0063 [pdf] submitted on 2017-04-05 12:22:14

Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 32 Pages. Related Matlab demos at https://github.com/lukafree/GIS.git

Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples. Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been already employed implicitly in different works in literature. The provided analysis yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) framework and show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis (I-MTM) schemes can be interpreted as a standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques based on GIS. The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling (GMS) method, produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle Metropolis-Hastings (DPMH) technique, where different parallel particle filters are jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel schemes are tested in different numerical experiments and compared with several benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three descriptive Matlab demos are also provided.
Category: Statistics

[154] viXra:1703.0217 [pdf] submitted on 2017-03-23 04:27:14

Clustering Based On Natural Metric

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 2 Pages.

In this research article, the author has detailed a Novel Scheme of Clustering Based on Natural Metric.
Category: Statistics

[153] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] submitted on 2017-03-21 08:07:21

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) - A Single Statistic to Measure "Clutchiness" in Team Sports

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 82 Pages.

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[152] viXra:1703.0163 [pdf] submitted on 2017-03-16 12:28:32

The Intrinsic Value of a Pitch

Authors: Glenn Healey
Comments: 24 Pages.

The deployment of sensors that characterize the trajectory of pitches and batted balls in three dimensions provides the opportunity to assign an intrinsic value to a pitch that depends on its physical properties and not on its observed outcome. We exploit this opportunity by utilizing a Bayesian framework to map five-dimensional PITCHf/x velocity, movement, and location vectors to pitch intrinsic values. HITf/x data is used by the model to obtain intrinsic quality-of-contact values for batted balls that are invariant to the defense, ballpark, and atmospheric conditions. Separate mappings are built to accommodate the effects of count and batter/pitcher handedness. A kernel method is used to generate nonparametric estimates for the component probability density functions in Bayes theorem while cross-validation enables the model to adapt to the size and structure of the data.
Category: Statistics

[151] viXra:1703.0041 [pdf] submitted on 2017-03-05 02:04:12

A Systematic Analysis of Soccer Forecast Models and Prediction Leagues

Authors: Malte Braband
Comments: 16 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, in German. Jugend Forscht project 130423.

This paper analyses the question how to systematically reach the top flight of soccer prediction leagues. In a first step several forecast models are compared and it is shown how most models can be related to the Poisson model. Some of the relations are new. Additionally a method has been developed which allows to numerically evaluate the outcome probabilities of soccer championships instead of simulation. The main practical result for the example of the 2014 soccer World Championship was that the forecast models were significantly better than the human participants of a large public prediction league. However the results between the forecast models were small, both qualitatively and quantitatively. But it is quite unlikely that a large prediction league will be won by a forecast model although the forecast models almost all belonged to the top flight of the prediction league.
Category: Statistics

[150] viXra:1703.0010 [pdf] submitted on 2017-03-01 14:12:42

The “SUV” Statistic for Baseball and Football – Situational Underlying Value

Authors: Raymond H.V. Gallucci
Comments: 48 Pages.

SUV – Situational Underlying Value – for professional baseball (MLB) is a concept based on the more traditional one of “run expectancy.” This is a statistical estimate of the number of runs expected to result from a base runner or multiple runners given his/their presence at a particular base, or bases, and the number of outs in an inning. Numerous baseball websites discuss this concept; one can find dozens more with a simple internet search on “run expectancy.” SUV for professional football (NFL) is not as readily conceived as that for baseball, although the concept of each position on the field with down and yards to go has been examined for the possibility of assigning point values (from here on referred to as SUVs). Quantification of this concept is taken from “Expected Points and Expected Points Added Explained,” by Brian Burke, December 7, 2014. Example applications to a pair of professional baseball games (MLB) and pair of professional football games (NFL) are included that illustrate how the SUV is used.
Category: Statistics

[149] viXra:1702.0308 [pdf] submitted on 2017-02-24 22:04:43

Universal One Step Forecasting Model For Dynamical State Systems (Version 4)

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 9 Pages.

In this research investigation, the author has presented a Novel Forecasting Model based on Locally Linear Transformations, Element Wise Inner Product Mapping, De-Normalization of the Normalized States for predicting the next instant of a Dynamical State given its sufficient history is known.
Category: Statistics

[148] viXra:1702.0294 [pdf] submitted on 2017-02-23 22:02:28

Picking A Least Biased Random Sample Of Size n From A Data Set of N Points With n

Authors: Ramesh Chandra Bagadi
Comments: 5 Pages.

In this research investigation, a Statistical Algorithm is detailed that enables us to pick a Least Biased Random Sample of Size n , from a Data Set of N Points with n<N.
Category: Statistics

[147] viXra:1702.0243 [pdf] submitted on 2017-02-19 11:36:41

A Tutorial on Simplicity and Computational Differentiation for Statisticians

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 26 Pages.

Automatic differentiation is a powerful collection of software tools that are invaluable in many areas including statistical computing. It is well known that automatic differentiation techniques can be applied directly by a programmer in a process called hand coding. However, the advantages of hand coding with certain applications are less appreciated, but these advantages are of paramount importance to statistics in particular. Based on the present literature, the variance component problem using restricted maximum likelihood is an example where hand coding derivatives was very useful relative to automatic or algebraic approaches. Some guidelines for hand coding backward derivatives are also provided, and emphasis is given to techniques for reducing space complexity and computing second derivatives.
Category: Statistics

[146] viXra:1701.0420 [pdf] submitted on 2017-01-10 13:45:13

Alternate Approach of Comparison for Selection Problem

Authors: Nikhil Shaw
Comments: 8 Pages.

In computer science, a selection algorithm is an algorithm for finding the kth smallest number in a list or array; such a number is called the kth order statistic. This includes the cases of finding the minimum, maximum, and median elements. There are O(n) (worst-case linear time) selection algorithms, and sublinear performance is possible for structured data; in the extreme, O(1) for an array of sorted data. Selection is a subproblem of more complex problems like the nearest neighbor and shortest path problems. Many selection algorithms are derived by generalizing a sorting algorithm, and conversely some sorting algorithms can be derived as repeated application of selection. This new algorithm although has worst case of O(n^2), the average case is of near linear time for an unsorted list.
Category: Statistics

[145] viXra:1701.0325 [pdf] submitted on 2017-01-08 03:55:27

Epstein Bar Virus (Ebv) a Cause of Human Breast Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 29 Pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by:

Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) has been widely proposed as a possible candidate virus for the viral etiology of human breast cancer, still the most common malignancy affecting females worldwide. Due to possible problems with PCR analyses (contamination), the lack of uniformity in the study design and insufficient mathematical/statistical methods used by the different authors, findings of several EBV (polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) studies contradict each other making it difficult to determine the EBV etiology for breast cancer. In this present study, we performed a re-investigation of some of the known studies. To place our results in context, this study support the hypothesis that EBV is a cause of human breast cancer.
Category: Statistics

[144] viXra:1701.0296 [pdf] submitted on 2017-01-05 13:34:46

Epstein Bar Virus. a Main Cause of Hodgkin’s Lymphoma.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 7 Pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by: Journal of Biosciences and Medicines, 2018, Vol.6 No.1, pp. 75-100.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), a herpes virus which persists in memory B cells in the peripheral blood for the lifetime of a person, is associated with some malignancies. Many studies suggested that the Epstein-Barr virus contributes to the development of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) in some cases too. Despite intensive study, the role of Epstein-Barr virus in Hodgkin's lymphoma remains enigmatic. It is the purpose of this publication to make the proof the Epstein-Barr virus is a main cause of Hodgkin’s lymphoma (k=+0,739814235, p Value = 0,000000000000138).
Category: Statistics

[143] viXra:1701.0009 [pdf] submitted on 2017-01-02 10:00:30

Helicobacter Pylori – the Cause of Human Gastric Cancer.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 9 Pages. Copyright © 2016 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by Journal of Biosciences and Medicines, Vol.5 No. 2, p. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.4236/jbm.2017.52001

Background: Many studies documented an association between a Helicobacter pylori infection and the development of human gastric cancer. None of these studies were able to identify Helicobacter pylori as a cause or as the cause of human gastric cancer. The basic relation between gastric cancer and Helicobacter pylori still remains uncer-tain. Objectives: This systematic review and re-analysis of Naomi Uemura et al. available long-term, prospective study of 1526 Japanese patients is performed so that some new and meaningful inference can be drawn. Materials and Methods: Data obtained by Naomi Uemura et al. who conducted a long-term, prospective study of 1526 Japanese patients with a mean follow up about 7.8 years and endoscopy at enrolment and in the following between one and three years after enrolment were re-analysed. Statistical analysis used: The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis without a helicobacter pylori infection no development of human gastric cancer. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between a helicobacter pylori infection and human gastric cancer. Significance was indicated by a P value of less than 0.05. Results: Based on the data published by Uemura et al. we were able to make evidence that without a helicobacter pylori infection no development of human gastric cancer. In other words, a Helicobacter pylori infection is a conditio sine qua non of human gastric cancer. In the same respect, the data of Uemura et al. provide a significant evidence that a helicobacter pylori infection is the cause of human gastric cancer. Conclusions: Without a Helicobacter pylori infection no development of human gastric cancer. Hel-icobacter pylori is the cause (k=+0,07368483, p Value = 0.00399664) of human gastric cancer.
Category: Statistics

[142] viXra:1612.0361 [pdf] submitted on 2016-12-28 07:08:27

Epstein-Barr Virus (Ebv) – a Main Cause of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 5 Pages. Copyright © 2016 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever. Published by: Romanian journal of rheumatology, 27 (4), (2018), 148-163. https://rjr.com.ro/

Objective. Many studies presented some evidence that EBV might play a role in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis. Still, there are conflicting reports concerning the existence of EBV in the synovial tissue of patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis. Material and methods. Takeda et al. designed a study to detected EBV DNA is synovial tissues obtained at synovectomy or arthroplasty from 32 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and 30 control patients (no rheumatoid arthritis). In this study, the data as published by Takeda et al. were re-analysed. Results. EBV infection of human synovial tissues is a condition per quam of rheumatoid arthritis. And much more than this. There is a highly significant causal relationship between an EBV infection of human synovial tissues and rheumatoid arthritis (k= +0,546993718, p-value = 0,00001655). Conclusion. These findings suggest that EBV infection of human synovial tissues is a main cause of rheumatoid arthritis.
Category: Statistics

[141] viXra:1612.0240 [pdf] submitted on 2016-12-14 04:46:37

Standard Deviation for PDG Mass Data

Authors: M. J. Germuska
Comments: 6 Pages.

This paper analyses the data for the masses of elementary particles provided by the Particles Data Group (PDG). It finds evidence that the best mass estimates are not based solely on statistics but also on overall consistency, that sometimes results in skewed minimum and maximum mass limits. The paper also points out to some other quirks that result in minimum and maximum mass limits which are far from the statistical standard deviation. A statistical method is proposed to compute the standard deviation in such cases and when PDG does not provide any limits.
Category: Statistics

[140] viXra:1611.0037 [pdf] submitted on 2016-11-03 07:20:40

Subnormal Distribution Derived from Evolving Networks with Variable Elements

Authors: Minyu Feng, Hong Qu, Zhang Yi, Jürgen Kurths
Comments: 11 pages

During the last decades, Power-law distributions played significant roles in analyzing the topology of scale-free (SF) networks. However, in the observation of degree distributions of practical networks and other unequal distributions such as wealth distribution, we uncover that, instead of monotonic decreasing, there exists a peak at the beginning of most real distributions, which cannot be accurately described by a Power-law. In this paper, in order to break the limitation of the Power-law distribution, we provide detailed derivations of a novel distribution called Subnormal distribution from evolving networks with variable elements and its concrete statistical properties. Additionally, imulations of fitting the subnormal distribution to the degree distribution of evolving networks, real social network, and personal wealth distribution are displayed to show the fitness of proposed distribution.
Category: Statistics

[139] viXra:1610.0010 [pdf] submitted on 2016-10-01 17:00:34

Multiple Imputation Procedures Using the Gabrieleigen Algorithm

Authors: Marisol García-Peña, Sergio Arciniegas-Alarcón, Wojtek Krzanowski, Décio Barbin
Comments: 15 Pages.

GabrielEigen is a simple deterministic imputation system without structural or distributional assumptions, which uses a mixture of regression and lower-rank approximation of a matrix based on its singular value decomposition. We provide multiple imputation alternatives (MI) based on this system, by adding random quantities and generating approximate confidence intervals with different widths to the imputations using cross-validation (CV). These methods are assessed by a simulation study using real data matrices in which values are deleted randomly at different rates, and also in a case where the missing observations have a systematic pattern. The quality of the imputations is evaluated by combining the variance between imputations (Vb) and their mean squared deviations from the deleted values (B) into an overall measure (Tacc). It is shown that the best performance occurs when the interval width matches the imputation error associated with GabrielEigen.
Category: Statistics

[138] viXra:1609.0230 [pdf] submitted on 2016-09-15 04:35:44

The Recycling Gibbs Sampler for Efficient and Fast Learning

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 13 Pages.

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in statistical signal processing, machine learning and statistics, employed to draw samples from complicated high-dimensional posterior distributions. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw efficiently from the full-conditional pdfs. In the general case, this is not possible and it requires the generation of auxiliary samples that are wasted, since they are not used in the final estimators. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be employed within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. This novel scheme arises naturally after pointing out the relationship between the Gibbs sampler and the chain rule used for sampling purpose. Numerical simulations confirm the excellent performance of the novel scheme.
Category: Statistics

[137] viXra:1609.0215 [pdf] submitted on 2016-09-14 01:54:49

Uses of Sampling Techniques & Inventory Control with Capacity Constraints

Authors: editors Sachin Malik, Neeraj Kumar, Florentin Smarandache
Comments: 90 Pages.

The main aim of the present book is to suggest some improved estimators using auxiliary and attribute information in case of simple random sampling and stratified random sampling and some inventory models related to capacity constraints. This volume is a collection of five papers, written by six co-authors (listed in the order of the papers): Dr. Rajesh Singh, Dr. Sachin Malik, Dr. Florentin Smarandache, Dr. Neeraj Kumar, Mr. Sanjey Kumar & Pallavi Agarwal. In the first chapter authors suggest an estimator using two auxiliary variables in stratified random sampling for estimating population mean. In second chapter they proposed a family of estimators for estimating population means using known value of some population parameters. In Chapter third an almost unbiased estimator using known value of some population parameter(s) with known population proportion of an auxiliary variable has been used. In Chapter four the authors investigates a fuzzy economic order quantity model for two storage facility. The demand, holding cost, ordering cost, storage capacity of the own - warehouse are taken as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In Chapter five a two-warehouse inventory model deals with deteriorating items, with stock dependent demand rate and model affected by inflation under the pattern of time value of money over a finite planning horizon. Shortages are allowed and partially backordered depending on the waiting time for the next replenishment. The purpose of this model is to minimize the total inventory cost by using the genetic algorithm. This book will be helpful for the researchers and students who are working in the field of sampling techniques and inventory control.
Category: Statistics

[136] viXra:1609.0210 [pdf] submitted on 2016-09-13 11:02:40

Error Bounds on the Loggamma Function Amenable to Interval Arithmetic

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 13 Pages. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Unlike other common transcendental functions such as log and sine, James Stirling's convergent series for the loggamma (“logΓ”) function suggests no obvious method by which to ascertain meaningful bounds on the error due to truncation after a particular number of terms. (“Convergent” refers to the fact that his original formula appeared to converge, but ultimately diverged.) As such, it remains an anathema to the interval arithmetic algorithms which underlie our confidence in its various numerical applications. Certain error bounds do exist in the literature, but involve branches and procedurally generated rationals which defy straightforward implementation via interval arithmetic. In order to ameliorate this situation, we derive error bounds on the loggamma function which are readily amenable to such methods.
Category: Statistics

[135] viXra:1609.0145 [pdf] submitted on 2016-09-11 14:55:29

The Formulating of Some Probable Concepts and Theories Using the Technique of Neutrosophic and Its Impact on Decision Making Process

Authors: A. A. Salama, Rafif alhbeib
Comments: 13 Pages.

تكمن أهمية البحث في الوصول إلى آفاق جديدة في نظرية الاحتمالات سندعوها نظرية الاحتمالات الكلاسيكية النتروسوفيكية وضع أسسها أحمد سلامة وفلورنتن سمارنداكة والتي تنتج عن تطبيق المنطق النتروسوفيكي على نظرية الاحتمالات الكلاسيكية , ولقد عرف سلامة وسمارانداكه الفئة النتروسوفيكية الكلاسيكية بثلاث مكونات جزئية من الفئة الشاملة الكلاسيكية ( فضاء العينة) وثلاث مكونات من الفئة الفازية هي الصحة والخطأ والحياد (الغموض) وإمتداد لمفاهيم سلامة وسمارنداكة سنقوم بدراسة احتمال هذه الفئات الجديدة واستنتاج الخصائص لهذا الاحتمال ومقارنته مع الاحتمال الكلاسيكي ولابد أن نذكر أنه يمكن لهذه الأفكار أن تساعد الباحثين وتقدم لهم استفادة كبرى في المستقبل في إيجاد خوارزميات جديدة لحل مشاكل دعم القرار . مشكلة البحث: لقد وضع تطور العلوم أمام نظرية الاحتمالات عدداً كبيراً من المسائل الجديدة غير المفسرة في إطار النظرية الكلاسيكية ولم تكن لدى نظرية الاحتمالات طرق عامة أو خاصة تفسر الظواهر الجارية في زمن ما بشكل دقيق فكان لابد من توسيع بيانات الدراسة وتوصيفها بشكل دقيق لنحصل على احتمالات أكثر واقعية واتخاذ قرارات أكثر صوابية وهنا جاء دور المنطق النتروسوفيكي الذي قدم لنا نوعبن من الفئات النتروسوفيكية التي تعمم المفهوم الضبابي والمفهوم الكلاسيكي للفئات والاحداث التي تعتبر اللبنة الأولى في دراسة الاحتمالات النتروسوفيكية . أهداف البحث: تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى : 1-تقديم وعرض لنظرية الفئات النتروسوفيكية من النوع الكلاسيكي والنوع الفازي . 2-تقديم وتعريف الاحتمال النتروسوفيكي للفئات النتروسوفيكية . 3-بناء أدوات لتطوير الاحتمال النتروسوفيكي ودراسة خصائصه . 4-تقديم التعاريف والنظريات الاحتمالية وفق المنطق النتروسوفيكي الجديد . 5-مقارنة ما تم التوصل إليه من نتائج باستخدام الاحتمال النيتروسوفكي Neutrosophic probability بالاحتمال الكلاسيكي . 6-نتائج استخدام الاحتمالات النتروسوفيكية على عملية اتخاذ القرار .
Category: Statistics

[134] viXra:1608.0403 [pdf] submitted on 2016-08-30 03:06:12

From Jewish Verbal and General Intelligence to Jewish Achievement: A Doubly Right Wing Issue

Authors: Sascha Vongehr
Comments: 6 Pages. 2 Figures

Ashkenazim Jews (AJ) comprise roughly 30% of Nobel Prize winners, ‘elite institute’ faculty, etc. Mean AJ intelligence quotients (IQ) fail explaining this, because AJ are only 2.2% of the US population. The growing anti-Semitic right wing supports conspiracy theories with this. However, deviations depend on means. This lifts the right wing of the AJ IQ distribution. Alternative mechanisms such as intellectual AJ culture or in-group collaboration, even if real, must be regarded as included through their IQ-dependence. Antisemitism is thus opposed in its own domain of discourse; it is an anti-intelligence position inconsistent with eugenics.
Category: Statistics

[133] viXra:1607.0526 [pdf] submitted on 2016-07-27 14:23:22

Missing Value Imputation in Multi-Environment Trials: Reconsidering the Krzanowski Method

Authors: Sergio Arciniegas-Alarcón, Marisol García-Peña, Wojtek Krzanowski
Comments: 9 Pages.

We propose a new methodology for multiple imputation when faced with missing data in multi-environmental trials with genotype-by-environment interaction, based on the imputation system developed by Krzanowski that uses the singular value decomposition (SVD) of a matrix. Several different iterative variants are described; differential weights can also be included in each variant to represent the influence of different components of SVD in the imputation process. The methods are compared through a simulation study based on three real data matrices that have values deleted randomly at different percentages, using as measure of overall accuracy a combination of the variance between imputations and their mean square deviations relative to the deleted values. The best results are shown by two of the iterative schemes that use weights belonging to the interval [0.75, 1]. These schemes provide imputations that have higher quality when compared with other multiple imputation methods based on the Krzanowski method.
Category: Statistics

[132] viXra:1607.0497 [pdf] submitted on 2016-07-26 16:13:09

The Reliability of Intrinsic Batted Ball Statistics: Appendix

Authors: Glenn Healey
Comments: 7 Pages.

Given information about batted balls for a set of players, we review techniques for estimating the reliability of a statistic as a function of the sample size. We also review methods for using the estimated reliability to compute the variance of true talent and to generate forecasts.
Category: Statistics

[131] viXra:1607.0471 [pdf] submitted on 2016-07-25 06:41:23

From Unbiased Numerical Estimates to Unbiased Interval Estimates

Authors: Baokun Li, Gang Xiang, Vladik Kreinovich, Panagios Moscopoulos
Comments: 12 Pages.

One of the main objectives of statistics is to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution based on a sample taken from this distribution.
Category: Statistics

[130] viXra:1607.0393 [pdf] submitted on 2016-07-21 14:54:41

Analysis of Sunflower Data from a Multi-Attribute Genotype ×environment Trial in Brazil

Authors: Marisol García-Peña, Sergio Arciniegas-Alarcón, Kaye Basford, Carlos Tadeu dos Santos Dias
Comments: 13 Pages.

In multi-environment trials it is common to measure several response variables or attributes to determine the genotypes with the best characteristics. Thus it is important to have techniques to analyse multivariate multi-environment trial data. The main objective is to complement the literature on two multivariate techniques, the mixture maximum likelihood method of clustering and three-mode principal component analysis, used to analyse genotypes, environments and attributes simultaneously. In this way, both global and detailed statements about the performance of the genotypes can be made, highlighting the benefit of using three-way data in a direct way and providing an alternative analysis for researchers. We illustrate using sunflower data with twenty genotypes, eight environments and three attributes. The procedures provide an analytical procedure which is relatively easy to apply and interpret in order to describe the patterns of performance and associations in multivariate multi-environment trials.
Category: Statistics

[129] viXra:1607.0244 [pdf] submitted on 2016-07-18 06:02:32

Considerations Regarding The Scientific Language and “Literary Language”

Authors: Florentin Smarandache
Comments: 3 Pages.

As in nature nothing is absolute, evidently there will not exist a precise border between the scientific language and “the literary” one (the language used in literature): thus there will be zones where these two languages intersect.
Category: Statistics

Replacements of recent Submissions

[110] viXra:1901.0170 [pdf] replaced on 2019-01-19 04:36:08

Index of Unfairness

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: Comments: 70 pages. Copyright © 2019 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by

Objective: Objective scientific knowledge for many authors more valuable than true subjective belief is determined by research on primary data but a renewed analysis of already recorded or published data is common too. Ever since, an appropriate experimental or study design is an important and often a seriously underappreciated aspect of the informativeness and the scientific value of any (medical) study. The significance of study design for the reliability of the conclusions drawn and the ability to generalize the results from the sample investigated for the whole population cannot be underestimated. In contrast to an inappropriate statistical evaluation of a medical study, it is difficult to correct errors in study design after the study has been completed. Various mathematical aspects of study design are discussed in this article. Methods: In assessing the significance of a fair study design of a medical study, important measures of publication bias are introduced. Methods of data or publication bias analysis in different types of studies are illustrated through examples with fictive data. Formal mathematical requirements of a fair study design which can and should be fulfilled carefully with regard to the planning or evaluation of medical research are developed. Results. Various especially mathematical aspects of a fair study design are discussed in this article in detail. Depending on the particular question being asked, mathematical methods are developed which allow us to recognize data which are self-contradictory and to exclude these data from systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses. As a result, different individual studies can be summed up and evaluated with a higher degree of certainty. Conclusions This article is intended to give the reader guidance in evaluating the design of studies in medical research even ex post which should enable the reader to categorize medical studies better and to assess their scientific quality more accurately. Keywords: study design, quality, study, study type, measuring technique, publication bias
Category: Statistics

[109] viXra:1901.0079 [pdf] replaced on 2019-01-08 22:24:19

Estimating Variances and Covariances in a Non-stationary Multivariate Time Series Using the K-matrix

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 15 Pages.

A second order time series model is described, and generalized to the multivariate situation. The model is highly flexible, and is suitable for non-parametric regression, coming with unequal time steps. The resulting K-matrix is described, leading to its possible factorization and differentiation using general purpose software that was recently developed. This makes it possible to estimate variance matrices in the multivariate model corresponding the signal and noise components of the model, by restricted maximum likelihood. A nested iteration algorithm is presented for conducting the maximization, and an illustration of the methods are demonstrated on a 4-variate time series with 89 observations.
Category: Statistics

[108] viXra:1812.0044 [pdf] replaced on 2018-12-08 01:40:57

Non-Parametric Regression or Smoothing on a Two Dimensional Lattice Using the K-Matrix

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 16 Pages.

A two-dimensional lattice model is described that is able to treat border effects in a coherent way. The model belongs to a class of non-parametric regression models, coming with three smoothness parameters that are estimated from cross validation. The techniques use the K-matrix, which is a typically large and sparse matrix that is also symmetric and indefinite. The K-matrix is subjected to factorization, and algorithmic differentiation, using optimized software, thereby permitting estimation of the smoothness parameters and estimation of the two-dimensional surface. The techniques are demonstrated on real data.
Category: Statistics

[107] viXra:1811.0505 [pdf] replaced on 2018-12-26 15:10:47

Compressed Monte Carlo for Distributed Bayesian Inference

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira
Comments: 14 Pages.

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference needs the approximation of complicated integrals involving the posterior distribution. For this purpose, Monte Carlo (MC) methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) algorithms, are often employed. In this work, we introduce theory and practice of a Compressed MC (C-MC) scheme, in order to compress the information contained in a could of samples. CMC is particularly useful in a distributed Bayesian inference framework, when cheap and fast communications with a central processor are required. In its basic version, C-MC is strictly related to the stratification technique, a well-known method used for variance reduction purposes. Deterministic C-MC schemes are also presented, which provide very good performance. The compression problem is strictly related to moment matching approach applied in different filtering methods, often known as Gaussian quadrature rules or sigma-point methods. The connections to herding algorithms and quasi-Monte Carlo perspective are also discussed. Numerical results confirm the benefit of the introduced schemes, outperforming the corresponding benchmark methods.
Category: Statistics

[106] viXra:1811.0412 [pdf] replaced on 2019-01-01 07:35:51

On the Distributional Expansions of Powered Extremes from Maxwell Distribution

Authors: Jianwen Huang, Xinling Liu, Jianjun Wang, Zhongquan Tan, Jingyao Hou, Hao Pu
Comments: 17 Pages.

In this paper, asymptotic expansions of the distributions and densities of powered extremes for Maxwell samples are considered. The results show that the convergence speeds of normalized partial maxima relies on the powered index. Additionally, compared with previous result, the convergence rate of the distribution of powered extreme from Maxwell samples is faster than that of its extreme. Finally, numerical analysis is conducted to illustrate our findings.
Category: Statistics

[105] viXra:1810.0236 [pdf] replaced on 2018-10-22 15:48:03

Epstein-Barr Virus is the Cause Rheumatoid Arthritis

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: Comments: 20 Pages. Published by: Romanian journal of rheumatology, 27 (4), (2018), 148-163. https://rjr.com.ro/

Aim: Many studies presented some evidence that EBV might play a role in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis. Still, there are conflicting reports concerning the existence of EBV in the synovial tissue of patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis. This systematic review assesses the causal relationship between Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) for gaining a better understanding of the pathogenesis of RA. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis is provided aimed to answer among other questions the following question. Is there a cause effect relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and rheumatoid arthritis? The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis without Epstein-Barr virus no rheumatoid arthritis. In other words, if rheumatoid arthritis is present, then Epstein-Barr virus is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and rheumatoid arthritis. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analysed were able to provide convincing evidence that Epstein-Barr virus is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) of rheumatoid arthritis. Furthermore, the studies analysed provide impressive evidence of a cause-effect relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and rheumatoid arthritis. Conclusion: EBV infection of human synovial tissues is a condition sine qua non, a condition per quam and a conditio sine qua non and conditio per quam of rheumatoid arthritis. In other words, Epstein-Barr virus is the cause of rheumatoid arthritis.
Category: Statistics

[104] viXra:1809.0577 [pdf] replaced on 2018-10-07 18:56:29

Situational Underlying Value (Suv) Statistic for Major League Baseball – Defense

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 55 Pages.

In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football, and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). [1] Based on the concept of “run expectancy,” it assigns an SUV to each base as a function of the number of outs, including a negative value for making an out. There, and in “Proof of Principle” for Situational Underlying Value (SUV) – A Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, [2] it was applied exclusively to hitters and pitchers. Its derivation is explained in Reference 1, with additional discussion provided in Reference 2. Reference 1 provides two example games to show how the SUVs accrue for each team’s hitters and pitchers. The goal of this third work, which includes “Proof of Principle” as in Reference 2, is to track the performance of a team’s individual fielders defensively, including an enhancement to the approach for pitching previously developed in Reference 2, over the same substantial portion of an entire season. One-third of the 2017 season, i.e., 54 games, have again been selected for the Seattle Mariners, starting with Game 002 and tracking every third game up through Game 161. The SUVs are based on the play-by-play descriptions provided in “Baseball Reference,” https://www.baseball-reference.com/. [3] Summary SUV analyses for all 54 games are provided below, with a roll-up of cumulative SUVs every six games. Also, the actual play-by-plays are included for every third game analyzed, starting from Game 005 (i.e., for Games 005, 014, 023, 032, 041, 050, 059, 068, 077, 086, 095, 104, 113, 122, 131, 140, 149 and 158), providing a total for 18 games. For the rest (which are only summarized), the reader should consult Reference 3. There is an important change to the above table for defensive tracking, also applied to the enhanced pitching analysis, namely the reversal of all the SUV signs. This enables “positive” defensive outcomes (outs) to be assigned positive SUVs, while “negative” outcomes (reaching base or advancing) are assigned negative SUVs. The assignment of defensive SUVs is somewhat more involved than that for hitting. Specific assignments, most frequently encountered, are presented below.
Category: Statistics

[103] viXra:1809.0577 [pdf] replaced on 2018-10-03 19:19:55

Situational Underlying Value (Suv) Statistic for Major League Baseball – Defense

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 55 Pages. Minor formatting revision.

In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football, and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). [1] Based on the concept of “run expectancy,” it assigns an SUV to each base as a function of the number of outs, including a negative value for making an out. There, and in “Proof of Principle” for Situational Underlying Value (SUV) – A Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, [2] it was applied exclusively to hitters and pitchers. Its derivation is explained in Reference 1, with additional discussion provided in Reference 2. Reference 1 provides two example games to show how the SUVs accrue for each team’s hitters and pitchers. The goal of this third work, which includes “Proof of Principle” as in Reference 2, is to track the performance of a team’s individual fielders defensively, including an enhancement to the approach for pitching previously developed in Reference 2, over the same substantial portion of an entire season. One-third of the 2017 season, i.e., 54 games, have again been selected for the Seattle Mariners, starting with Game 002 and tracking every third game up through Game 161. The SUVs are based on the play-by-play descriptions provided in “Baseball Reference,” https://www.baseball-reference.com/. [3] Summary SUV analyses for all 54 games are provided below, with a roll-up of cumulative SUVs every six games. Also, the actual play-by-plays are included for every third game analyzed, starting from Game 005 (i.e., for Games 005, 014, 023, 032, 041, 050, 059, 068, 077, 086, 095, 104, 113, 122, 131, 140, 149 and 158), providing a total for 18 games. For the rest (which are only summarized), the reader should consult Reference 3. There is an important change to the above table for defensive tracking, also applied to the enhanced pitching analysis, namely the reversal of all the SUV signs. This enables “positive” defensive outcomes (outs) to be assigned positive SUVs, while “negative” outcomes (reaching base or advancing) are assigned negative SUVs. The assignment of defensive SUVs is somewhat more involved than that for hitting. Specific assignments, most frequently encountered, are presented below.
Category: Statistics

[102] viXra:1809.0279 [pdf] replaced on 2018-09-15 17:18:26

Autoregressive and Rolling Moving Average Processes using the K-matrix with Discrete but Unequal Time Steps

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 10 Pages.

The autoregressive and rolling moving average time series models are describe with discrete time steps that may be unequal. The standard time series is described, as well as a two-dimensional spatial process that is separable into two one-dimensional processes. The K-matrix representations for each of these are presented, which can then be subjected to standard matrix handling techniques.
Category: Statistics

[101] viXra:1806.0411 [pdf] replaced on 2018-10-07 17:53:38

“PROOF of PRINCIPLE” for Situational Underlying Value (Suv) – a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and Ncaa Men’s College Basketball

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 41 Pages. NOTE: Due to size limitations, this has been published in three separate parts, with the abstract and references to all three parts included with each. This is Part 1, directed exclusively to Major League Baseball.

In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men’s College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance “in the clutch” vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different “traditional” statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and “traditional” statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader’s conclusion based on the results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[100] viXra:1806.0411 [pdf] replaced on 2018-09-28 22:32:07

“PROOF of PRINCIPLE” for Situational Underlying Value (Suv) – a Statistic to Measure Clutch Performance by Individuals in the Team Sports of Major League Baseball, Professional Football (NFL) and Ncaa Men’s College Basketball (Part 1)

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 41 Pages. Updates previous version, including re-evaluation of calculational process for baseball errors.

NOTE: Due to size limitations, this has been published in three separate parts, with the abstract and references to all three parts included with each. This is Part 1, directed exclusively to Major League Baseball. In Situational Underlying Value for Baseball, Football and Basketball – A Statistic (SUV) to Measure Individual Performance in Team Sports, an all-encompassing, overall statistic to measure “clutch” performance by individual players in the team sports of major league baseball, professional football (NFL), and NCAA men’s college basketball was developed, called “Situational Underlying Value” (SUV). This work supplements and extends the development and initial demonstrations of the use of the SUV statistic for these three team sports by tracking the performance of three specific teams in these three sports over a significant portion of their most recent seasons: (1) for major league baseball, 54 of the 162 games played by the Seattle Mariners in 2017; (2) for professional football, five of the 16 games played by the Seattle Seahawks in 2017; and (3) for NCAA Men’s College Basketball, the five games played by the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers in the 2018 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The SUV statistics for the players who participated in these games are tracked and accumulated for comparison among themselves and, for those who participated in a significant portion of these games, further compared against the traditional statistics for each team over the entire season (or, in the case of the Loyola of Chicago Ramblers, the complete five games of the Basketball Tournament). The goal is to examine the efficacy of this one overarching statistic, the SUV, in representing player performance “in the clutch” vs. more subjective interpretation of the myriad of different “traditional” statistics currently used. Anomalies between the SUV and “traditional” statistics results are examined and explained, to the extent practicable given the scope of the SUV analysis (partial seasons). Whether or not this effort proves successful is left to the reader’s conclusion based on the results and comparisons performed.
Category: Statistics

[99] viXra:1805.0433 [pdf] replaced on 2018-05-27 16:50:11

Human Cytomegalovirus: The Cause Of Glioblastoma Multiforme.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 15 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. Published by: Modern Health Science, 2018; Vol. 1, No. 2 ( https://j.ideasspread.org/index.php/mhs/article/view/152 )

Objective: The relationship between Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is investigated. Methods: A systematic review and re-analysis of some impressive key studies was conducted aimed to answer the following question. Is there a cause-effect relationship between HCMV and GBM? The method of the conditio sine qua non relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of HCMV guarantees the presence of GBM. In other words, without HCMV no GBM The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause-effect relationship between HCMV and GBM. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: The studies analysed were able to provide strict evidence that HCMV is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) of GBM. Furthermore, the cause-effect relationship between HCMV and GBM (k = +1, p value < 0,0001) was highly significant. Conclusion: Without HCMV no GBM. HCMV is the cause of GBM. Keywords: Cytomegalovirus, Glioblastoma multiforme, Causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[98] viXra:1805.0403 [pdf] replaced on 2018-09-17 09:01:12

Risk-Deformed Regulation: What Went Wrong with NFPA 805

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 50 Pages. Adds reference to recent publication.

Before proceeding, and lest opponents of nuclear power think this paper lends support to their efforts to shut down the nuclear industry, I must state the following. NFPA 805 will have been successful in that plants transitioning to it will be as safe as or safer than prior to transition. Plants that made no changes will have at least assessed their fire risks and be more knowledgeable of potential weaknesses that could compromise safety. Having found none, they will not have the need for changes. Plants that made effective changes will be safer than before. If you are one who believes the end justifies the means, then this “bottom line” is all that matters and you need read no further. However, if you are one who believes the means are also important, then you are the audience that I address. I am in no way contending that adoption of NFPA 805 compromised safety – I, too, believe that plants will be as safe or safer as a result of the transition. Why I wrote this paper is to express frustration over the “compromises” allowed by the NRC, and the “short-cuts” and “deviations” taken by the nuclear industry, to fulfill the promise of a “sea change” in fire protection at nuclear power plants through risk-informed, performance-based regulation. And, while no diminution of safety will have occurred, it is possible there were missed opportunities to improve safety if changes might have been made, or different changes substituted for those that were made, if not for these “compromises,” “short-cuts” and “deviations.” I must confess to being guilty of false optimism in December 2006 when I wrote “perhaps the single achievement most responsible for the improved regulatory environment for fire protection at commercial nuclear power plants has been the modification to 10CFR50.48 that allows licensees to ‘maintain a fire protection program that complies with NFPA 805 as an alternative to complying with [past, purely deterministic regulations]’” (Gallucci, “Thirty-Three Years of Regulating Fire Protection at Commercial U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: Dousing the Flames of Controversy,” Fire Technology, Vol. 45, pp. 355-380, 2009).
Category: Statistics

[97] viXra:1805.0403 [pdf] replaced on 2018-09-05 16:47:39

Risk-Deformed Regulation: What Went Wrong with Nfpa 805

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 50 Pages.

Before proceeding, and lest opponents of nuclear power think this paper lends support to their efforts to shut down the nuclear industry, I must state the following. NFPA 805 will have been successful in that plants transitioning to it will be as safe as or safer than prior to transition. Plants that made no changes will have at least assessed their fire risks and be more knowledgeable of potential weaknesses that could compromise safety. Having found none, they will not have the need for changes. Plants that made effective changes will be safer than before. If you are one who believes the end justifies the means, then this “bottom line” is all that matters and you need read no further. However, if you are one who believes the means are also important, then you are the audience that I address. I am in no way contending that adoption of NFPA 805 compromised safety – I, too, believe that plants will be as safe or safer as a result of the transition. Why I wrote this paper is to express frustration over the “compromises” allowed by the NRC, and the “short-cuts” and “deviations” taken by the nuclear industry, to fulfill the promise of a “sea change” in fire protection at nuclear power plants through risk-informed, performance-based regulation. And, while no diminution of safety will have occurred, it is possible there were missed opportunities to improve safety if changes might have been made, or different changes substituted for those that were made, if not for these “compromises,” “short-cuts” and “deviations.” I must confess to being guilty of false optimism in December 2006 when I wrote “perhaps the single achievement most responsible for the improved regulatory environment for fire protection at commercial nuclear power plants has been the modification to 10CFR50.48 that allows licensees to ‘maintain a fire protection program that complies with NFPA 805 as an alternative to complying with [past, purely deterministic regulations]’” (Gallucci, “Thirty-Three Years of Regulating Fire Protection at Commercial U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: Dousing the Flames of Controversy,” Fire Technology, Vol. 45, pp. 355-380, 2009).
Category: Statistics

[96] viXra:1805.0167 [pdf] replaced on 2018-05-10 11:18:43

Human Cytomegalovirus is the Cause of Atherosclerosis.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 26 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukcic, Jever, Germany. Published by: ...

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection has been supposed to play an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis (AS). Although many authors proved the presence of viral DNA in arterial wall tissue, the role of CMV in the origin and progress of athero-sclerosis still remains unclear and no definite consensus has been reached. Whether CMV may be involved in the development of AS has not yet been established. METHODS: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether CMV and AS are causally related. Literature was searched through the electronic database PubMed. Data were accurately assessed and analyzed. RESULTS: The meta-analysis results showed that CMV infection and AS are causally connected. CONCLUSIONS: Cytomegalovirus is the cause of atherosclerosis. Keywords Cytomegalovirus, atherosclerosis, causal relationship
Category: Statistics

[95] viXra:1804.0143 [pdf] replaced on 2018-04-11 10:54:08

Topological Detection of Wideband Anomalies

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 13 Pages.

Successive real-valued measurements of any physical chaotic oscillator can serve as entropy inputs to a random number generator (RNG) with correspondingly many whole numbered outputs of arbitrarily small bias, assuming that no correlation exists between successive such measurements apart from what would be implied by their probability distribution function (AKA the oscillator’s analog “generator”, which is constant over time and thus asymptotically discoverable). Given some historical measurements (a “snapshot”) of such an oscillator, we can then train the RNG to expect inputs distributed uniformally among the real intervals defined by those measurements and spanning the entire real line. Each interval thus implies an index in sorted order, starting with the leftmost which maps to zero; the RNG does nothing more than to perform this mapping. We can then replace that first oscillator with a second one presumed to abide by the same generator. It would then be possible to characterize the accuracy of that presumption by quantifying the ensuing change in quality of the RNG. Randomness quality is most accurately expressed via dyspoissonism, which is a normalized equivalent of the log of the number of ways in which a particular distribution of frequencies (occurrence counts) of masks (whole numbers) can occur. Thus the difference in dyspoissonism between the RNG output sets will serve to estimate the information divergence between theirrespective generators, which in turn constitutes a ranking quantifier for the purpose of anomaly detection.
Category: Statistics

[94] viXra:1803.0245 [pdf] replaced on 2018-03-31 04:43:44

[Add to Mendeley] [Add to Citeulike] [Add to Facebook] Mycobacterium Avium Subspecies Paratuberculosis is the Cause of Crohn's Disease

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 30 pages. Copyright © 2018 by Ilija Barukcic, Jever, Germany. Published by: Modern Health Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2018. https://doi.org/10.30560/mhs.v1n1p19

Objective: This systematic review assesses the causal relationship between Mycobac-terium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) and Crohn’s disease (CD). Methods: A systematic review and meat-analysis of some impressive PCR based stud-ies is provided aimed to answer among other questions the following question. Is there a cause effect relationship between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Crohn’s disease? The method of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis guarantees the presence of Crohn’s disease. In other words, if Crohn’s disease is present, then Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Crohn’s disease. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Result: The studies analyzed (number of cases and controls N=1076) were able to pro-vide evidence that Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis is a necessary condition (a conditio sine qua non) and sufficicent conditions of Crohn’s disease. Furthermore, the studies analyzed provide impressive evidence of a cause-effect relation-ship between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Crohn’s disease. Conclusion: Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis is the cause of Crohn’s disease
Category: Statistics

[93] viXra:1802.0192 [pdf] replaced on 2018-02-16 14:52:45

Rank Regression with Normal Residuals using the Gibbs Sampler

Authors: Stephen P. Smith
Comments: 9 Pages.

Yu (2000) described the use of the Gibbs sampler to estimate regression parameters where the information available in the form of depended variables is limited to rank information, and where the linear model applies to the underlying variation beneath the ranks. The approach uses an imputation step, which constitute nested draws from truncated normal distributions where the underlying variation is simulated as part of a broader Bayesian simulation. The method is general enough to treat rank information that represents ties or partial orderings.
Category: Statistics

[92] viXra:1712.0244 [pdf] replaced on 2018-01-13 13:47:16

A Review of Multiple Try MCMC Algorithms for Signal Processing

Authors: Luca Martino
Comments: 46 Pages. (to appear) Digital Signal Processing, 2018.

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of a-posteriori estimators which are often expressed as complicated multi-dimensional integrals. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and Monte Carlo methods are the only feasible approach. A very powerful class of Monte Carlo techniques is formed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. They generate a Markov chain such that its stationary distribution coincides with the target posterior density. In this work, we perform a thorough review of MCMC methods using multiple candidates in order to select the next state of the chain, at each iteration. With respect to the classical Metropolis-Hastings method, the use of multiple try techniques foster the exploration of the sample space. We present different Multiple Try Metropolis schemes, Ensemble MCMC methods, Particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and the Delayed Rejection Metropolis technique. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and dierences among the different methods, and compare them by numerical simulations.
Category: Statistics

[91] viXra:1712.0244 [pdf] replaced on 2018-01-13 08:15:36

A Review of Multiple Try MCMC Algorithms for Signal Processing

Authors: Luca Martino
Comments: 46 Pages. (to appear) Digital Signal Processing, 2018.

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of a-posteriori estimators which are often expressed as complicated multi-dimensional integrals. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and Monte Carlo methods are the only feasible approach. A very powerful class of Monte Carlo techniques is formed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. They generate a Markov chain such that its stationary distribution coincides with the target posterior density. In this work, we perform a thorough review of MCMC methods using multiple candidates in order to select the next state of the chain, at each iteration. With respect to the classical Metropolis-Hastings method, the use of multiple try techniques foster the exploration of the sample space. We present different Multiple Try Metropolis schemes, Ensemble MCMC methods, Particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and the Delayed Rejection Metropolis technique. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and dierences among the different methods, and compare them by numerical simulations.
Category: Statistics

[90] viXra:1710.0311 [pdf] replaced on 2017-10-31 04:20:07

Human Papilloma Virus - A Cause Of Malignant Melanoma.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 13 pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by:

Background: The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Objectives: In this systematic review we re-analysed the study of Roussaki-Schulze et al. and the study of La Placa et al. so that some new inferences can be drawn. Materials and methods: Roussaki-Schulze et al. obtained data from 28 human mel-anoma biopsy specimens and from 6 healthy individuals. La Placa et al. investigated 51 primary melanoma (PM) and in 20 control skin samples. The HPV DNA was de-termined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Statistical Analysis: The method of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, if human papillomavirus (HPV) is present, then malignant melanoma is present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Signifi-cance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: Based on the data as published by Roussaki-Schulze et al. and the data of La Placa et al. the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, human papillomavirus (HPV) is a conditio per quam of malignant melanoma. In contrast to the study of La Placa et al. and contrary to expectation, the study of Roussaki-Schulze et al. which is based on a very small sample size failed to provide evidence of a significant cause effect relationship be-tween human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Conclusions: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary condition of malignant melanoma. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a cause of malignant melanoma.
Category: Statistics

[89] viXra:1710.0311 [pdf] replaced on 2017-10-29 17:30:32

Human Papilloma Virus a Cause of Malignant Melanoma.

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 13 pages. Copyright © 2017 by Ilija Barukčić, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved. Published by:

Background: The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Objectives: In this systematic review we re-analysed the study of Roussaki-Schulze et al. and La Placa et al. so that some new inferences can be drawn. Materials and methods: Roussaki-Schulze et al. obtained data from 28 human mel-anoma biopsy specimens and from 6 healthy individuals. La Placa et al. investigated 51 primary melanoma (PM) and in 20 control skin samples. The HPV DNA was de-termined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Statistical Analysis: The method of the conditio per quam relationship was used to proof the hypothesis whether the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, if human papillomavirus (HPV) is present, then malignant melanoma must be present too. The mathematical formula of the causal relationship k was used to proof the hypothesis, whether there is a cause effect relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Significance was indicated by a p-value of less than 0.05. Results: Based on the data as published by Roussaki-Schulze et al. and La Placa et al. the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) guarantees the presence of malignant melanoma. In other words, human papillomavirus (HPV) is a conditio per quam of malignant melanoma. In contrast to the study of La Placa et al. and contrary to ex-pectation, the study of Roussaki-Schulze et al. which is based on a very small sample size failed to provide a significant cause effect relationship between human papillo-mavirus (HPV) and malignant melanoma. Conclusions: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary condition of malignant melanoma. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a cause of malignant melanoma.
Category: Statistics

[88] viXra:1710.0261 [pdf] replaced on 2017-12-01 10:20:35

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Matching via Entropy Divergences

Authors: Russell Leidich
Comments: 20 Pages.

The Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) quantifies the “information distance” between a pair of probability distributions. (A more generalized version, which is beyond the scope of this paper, is given in [1]. It extends this divergence to arbitrarily many such distributions. Related divergences are presented in [2], which is an excellent summary of existing work.)

A couple of novel applications for this divergence are presented herein, both of which involving sets of whole numbers constrained by some nonzero maximum value. (We’re primarily concerned with discrete applications of the JSD, although it’s defined for analog variables.) The first of these, which we can call the “Jensen-Shannon divergence transform” (JSDT), involves a sliding “sweep window” whose JSD with respect to some fixed “needle” is evaluated at each step as said window moves from left to right across a superset called a “haystack”.

The second such application, which we can call the “Jensen-Shannon exodivergence transform” (JSET), measures the JSD between a sweep window and an “exosweep”, that is, the haystack minus said window, at all possible locations of the latter. The JSET turns out to be exceptionally good at detecting anomalous contiguous subsets of a larger set of whole numbers.

We then investigate and attempt to improve upon the shortcomings of the JSD and the related Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD).


Category: Statistics

[87] viXra:1709.0422 [pdf] replaced on 2018-05-30 03:56:03

基于冗余紧框架的l2l1极小化块稀疏压缩感知

Authors: 张枫;王建军
Comments: 12 Pages.

压缩感知是(近似)稀疏信号处理的研究热点之一,它突破了Nyquist/Shannon采样率,实现了信号的高效采集和鲁棒重构.本文采用ℓ2/ℓ1极小化方法和Block D-RIP理论研究了在冗余紧框架下的块稀疏信号,所获结果表明,当Block D-RIP常数δ2k| 满足0 < δ2k| < 0.2时,ℓ2/ℓ1极小化方法能够鲁棒重构原始信号,同时改进了已有的重构条件和误差上限.基于离散傅里叶变换(DFT)字典,我们执行了一系列仿真实验充分地证实了理论结果.
Category: Statistics

[86] viXra:1709.0359 [pdf] replaced on 2017-09-26 21:38:43

A Note on the Block Restricted Isometry Property Condition

Authors: Jianwen Huang, Jianjun Wang, Wendong Wang
Comments: 15 Pages.

This work gains a sharp sufficient condition on the block restricted isometry property for the recovery of the sparse signal. Under the assumption, the sparse with block structure can be stably recovered in the present of noisy case and the block sparse signal can be assuredly reconstructed in the noise-free case. Besides, in order to exhibit the condition is sharp, we offer an example. Byproduct, as $t=1$, the result enhances the bound of block restricted isometry constant $\delta_{s|\mathcal{I}}$ in Lin and Li (Acta Math. Sin. Engl. Ser. 29(7): 1401-1412, 2013).
Category: Statistics

[85] viXra:1706.0279 [pdf] replaced on 2017-08-28 09:11:45

Statistical Characterization of the Time to Reach Peak Heat Release Rate for Nuclear Power Plant Electrical Enclosure Fires

Authors: Raymond H.V. Gallucci
Comments: 10 Pages.

Since publication of NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), EPRI/NRC-RES Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities in 2005, phenomenological modeling of fire growth to peak heat release rate (HRR) for electrical enclosure fires in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has typically assumed an average 12-minute rise time. [1] One previous analysis using the data from NUREG/CR-6850 from which this estimate derived (Gallucci, “Statistical Characterization of Cable Electrical Failure Temperatures Due to Fire, with Simulation of Failure Probabilities”) indicated that the time to peak HRR could be represented by a gamma distribution with alpha (shape) and beta (scale) parameters of 8.66 and 1.31, respectively. [2] Completion of the test program by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) for electrical enclosure heat release rates, documented in NUREG/CR-7197, Heat Release Rates of Electrical Enclosure Fires (HELEN-FIRE) in 2016, has provided substantially more data from which to characterize this growth time to peak HRR. [3] From these, the author develops probabilistic distributions that enhance the original NUREG/CR-6850 results for both qualified (Q) and unqualified cables (UQ). The mean times to peak HRR are 13.3 and 10.1 min for Q and UQ cables, respectively, with a mean of 12.4 min when all data are combined, confirming that the original NUREG/CR-6850 estimate of 12 min was quite reasonable. Via statistical-probabilistic analysis, the author shows that the time to peak HRR for Q and UQ cables can again be well represented by gamma distributions with alpha and beta parameters of 1.88 and 7.07, and 3.86 and 2.62, respectively. Working with the gamma distribution for All cables given the two cable types, the author performs simulations demonstrating that manual non-suppression probabilities, on average, are 30% and 10% higher than the use of a 12-min point estimate when the fire is assumed to be detected at its start and halfway between its start and the time it reaches its peak, respectively. This suggests that adopting a probabilistic approach enables more realistic modeling of this particular fire phenomenon (growth time).
Category: Statistics

[84] viXra:1705.0093 [pdf] replaced on 2017-07-05 00:57:58

Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling

Authors: L. Martino
Comments: IET Electronics Letters, Volume 53, Issue 16, Pages: 1115-1117, 2017

Monte Carlo (MC) methods have become very popular in signal processing during the past decades. The adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithms are well-known MC technique which draw efficiently independent samples from univariate target densities. The ARS schemes yield a sequence of proposal functions that converge toward the target, so that the probability of accepting a sample approaches one. However, sampling from the proposal pdf becomes more computationally demanding each time it is updated. We propose the Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling (PARS) method, where an efficient trade-off between acceptance rate and proposal complexity is obtained. Thus, the resulting algorithm is faster than the standard ARS approach.
Category: Statistics

[83] viXra:1705.0093 [pdf] replaced on 2017-05-04 14:04:31

Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling

Authors: L. Martino
Comments: 7 Pages.

Monte Carlo (MC) methods have become very popular in signal processing during the past decades. The adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithms are well-known MC technique which draw efficiently independent samples from univariate target densities. The ARS schemes yield a sequence of proposal functions that converge toward the target, so that the probability of accepting a sample approaches one. However, sampling from the proposal pdf becomes more computationally demanding each time it is updated. We propose the Parsimonious Adaptive Rejection Sampling (PARS) method, where an efficient trade-off between acceptance rate and proposal complexity is obtained. Thus, the resulting algorithm is faster than the standard ARS approach.
Category: Statistics

[82] viXra:1704.0277 [pdf] replaced on 2017-06-02 14:03:25

An Indirect Nonparametric Regression Method for One-Dimensional Continuous Distributions Using Warping Functions

Authors: Zhicheng Chen
Comments: 4 Pages.

Distributions play a very important role in many applications. Inspired by the newly developed warping transformation of distributions, an indirect nonparametric distribution to distribution regression method is proposed in this article for distribution prediction. Additionally, a hybrid approach by fusing the predictions respectively obtained by the proposed method and the conventional method is further developed for reducing risk when the predictor is contaminated.
Category: Statistics

[81] viXra:1704.0277 [pdf] replaced on 2017-05-12 21:34:09

An Indirect Nonparametric Regression Method for One-Dimensional Continuous Distributions Using Warping Functions

Authors: Zhicheng Chen
Comments: 4 Pages.

Distributions play a very important role in many applications. Inspired by the newly developed warping transformation of distributions, an indirect nonparametric distribution to distribution regression method is proposed in this article for predicting correlated one-dimensional continuous probability density functions.
Category: Statistics

[80] viXra:1704.0063 [pdf] replaced on 2018-08-03 10:13:16

Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 47 Pages. (to appear) Digital Signal Processing, 2018.

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples. Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been employed implicitly in dierent works in the literature. The provided analysis yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss theapplication of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling framework and show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis schemes can be interpreted as a standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques based on GIS. The rst one, named Group Metropolis Sampling method, produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle Metropolis-Hastings technique, where dierent parallel particle lters are jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Dierent resampled trajectories are compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel schemes are tested in dierent numerical experiments such as learning the hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes, two localization problems in a wireless sensor network (with synthetic and real data) and the tracking of vegetation parameters given satellite observations, where they are compared with several benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three illustrative Matlab demos are also provided.
Category: Statistics

[79] viXra:1704.0063 [pdf] replaced on 2017-04-28 15:44:45

Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 39 Pages.

Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples. Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been employed implicitly in different works in the literature. The provided analysis yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling framework and show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis schemes can be interpreted as a standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques based on GIS. The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling method, produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle Metropolis-Hastings technique, where different parallel particle filters are jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel schemes are tested in different numerical experiments such as learning the hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes, the localization problem in a wireless sensor network and the tracking of vegetation parameters given satellite observations, where they are compared with several benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three illustrative Matlab demos are also provided.
Category: Statistics

[78] viXra:1704.0063 [pdf] replaced on 2017-04-17 08:30:11

Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 39 Pages. Related Matlab demos at https://github.com/lukafree/GIS.git

Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples. Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been employed implicitly in different works in the literature. The provided analysis yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling framework and show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis schemes can be interpreted as a standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques based on GIS. The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling method, produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle Metropolis-Hastings technique, where different parallel particle filters are jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel schemes are tested in different numerical experiments such as learning the hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes, the localization problem in a wireless sensor network and the tracking of vegetation parameters given satellite observations, where they are compared with several benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three illustrative Matlab demos are also provided.
Category: Statistics

[77] viXra:1704.0063 [pdf] replaced on 2017-04-08 03:25:37

Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 32 Pages. Related Matlab demos at https://github.com/lukafree/GIS.git

Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples. Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been already employed implicitly in different works in literature. The provided analysis yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) framework and show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis (I-MTM) schemes can be interpreted as a standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques based on GIS. The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling (GMS) method, produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle Metropolis-Hastings (DPMH) technique, where different parallel particle filters are jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel schemes are tested in different numerical experiments such as learning the hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes (GP), the localization problem in a sensor network and the tracking of the Leaf Area Index (LAI), where they are compared with several benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three descriptive Matlab demos are also provided.
Category: Statistics

[76] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] replaced on 2019-01-08 13:11:40

The “SUV” Statistic for Baseball, Football and Basketball – Situational Underlying Value

Authors: Raymond H.V. Gallucci., P.e.
Comments: 90 Pages. Minor revision for typographical errors

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[75] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] replaced on 2018-10-07 17:37:06

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) - A Single Statistic to Measure "Clutchiness" in Team Sports

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 90 Pages.

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[74] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] replaced on 2018-09-12 15:16:41

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) - A Single Statistic to Measure ‘Clutchiness’ in Team Sports

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 90 Pages. Revised to update SUV allocation for baseball errors.

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[73] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] replaced on 2018-05-18 13:59:26

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) - A Single Statistic to Measure ‘Clutchiness’ in Team Sports

Authors: Raymond H Gallucci
Comments: 90 Pages. Includes inadvertent omissions of SUV football tables for second and third downs with more than 10 yards to go.

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[72] viXra:1703.0203 [pdf] replaced on 2017-04-05 13:22:39

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) - A Single Statistic to Measure ‘Clutchiness’ in Team Sports

Authors: Raymond HV Gallucci
Comments: 84 Pages.

Situational Underlying Value (SUV) arose from an attempt to develop an all-encompassing statistic for measuring “clutchiness” for individual baseball players. It was to be based on the “run expectancy” concept, whereby each base with a certain number of outs is “worth” some fraction of a run. Hitters/runners reaching these bases would acquire the “worth” of that base, with the “worth” being earned by the hitter if he reached a base or advanced a runner, or the runner himself if he advanced “on his own” (e.g., stolen base, wild pitch). After several iterations, the version for SUV Baseball presented herein evolved, and it is demonstrated via two games. Subsequently, the concept was extended to professional football and NCAA Men’s Basketball, both with two example games highlighting selected individual players. As with Major League Baseball, these are team games where individual performance may be hard to gauge with a single statistic. This is the goal of SUV, which can be used as a measure both for the team and individual players.
Category: Statistics

[71] viXra:1701.0420 [pdf] replaced on 2017-09-24 12:48:50

Alternate Approach of Comparison for Selection Problem

Authors: Nikhil Shaw
Comments: 6 Pages.

This paper proposes an alternate approach to solve the selection problem and is comparable to best-known algorithm of Quickselect. In computer science, a selection algorithm is an algorithm for finding the Kth smallest number in an unordered list or array. Selection is a subproblem of more complex problems like the nearest neighbor and shortest path problems. Previous known approaches work on the same principle to optimize the sorting algorithm and return the Kth element. This algorithm uses window method to prune and compare numbers to find the Kth smallest element. The average time complexity of the algorithm is linear and has the worst case of O(n^2).
Category: Statistics

[70] viXra:1609.0230 [pdf] replaced on 2017-12-21 05:20:57

The Recycling Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Learning

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 30 Pages. published in Digital Signal Processing, Volume 74, 2018

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from complicated high-dimensional posterior distributions. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw efficiently samples from the full-conditional probability density functions. Since in the general case this is not possible, in order to speed up the convergence of the chain, it is required to generate auxiliary samples whose information is eventually disregarded. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be recycled within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. This novel scheme arises naturally after pointing out the relationship between the standard Gibbs sampler and the chain rule used for sampling purposes. Numerical simulations involving simple and real inference problems confirm the excellent performance of the proposed scheme in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular we give empirical evidence of performance in a toy example, inference of Gaussian processes hyperparameters, and learning dependence graphs through regression.
Category: Statistics

[69] viXra:1609.0230 [pdf] replaced on 2017-12-20 08:13:53

The Recycling Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Learning

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 30 Pages. published in Digital Signal Processing, 2017

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from complicated high-dimensional posterior distributions. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw efficiently samples from the full-conditional probability density functions. Since in the general case this is not possible, in order to speed up the convergence of the chain, it is required to generate auxiliary samples whose information is eventually disregarded. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be recycled within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. This novel scheme arises naturally after pointing out the relationship between the standard Gibbs sampler and the chain rule used for sampling purposes. Numerical simulations involving simple and real inference problems confirm the excellent performance of the proposed scheme in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular we give empirical evidence of performance in a toy example, inference of Gaussian processes hyperparameters, and learning dependence graphs through regression.
Category: Statistics

[68] viXra:1609.0230 [pdf] replaced on 2016-11-21 10:18:22

The Recycling Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Learning

Authors: L. Martino, V. Elvira, G. Camps-Valls
Comments: 26 Pages. The MATLAB code of the numerical examples is provided at http://isp.uv.es/code/RG.zip.

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from complicated high-dimensional posterior distributions. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw efficiently samples from the full-conditional probability density functions. Since in the general case this is not possible, in order to speed up the convergence of the chain, it is required to generate auxiliary samples whose information is eventually disregarded. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be recycled within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. This novel scheme arises naturally after pointing out the relationship between the standard Gibbs sampler and the chain rule used for sampling purposes. Numerical simulations involving simple and real inference problems confirm the excellent performance of the proposed scheme in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular we give empirical evidence of performance in a toy example, inference of Gaussian processes hyperparameters, and learning dependence graphs through regression.
Category: Statistics

[67] viXra:1608.0403 [pdf] replaced on 2016-10-22 08:45:38

From Jewish Verbal and General Intelligence to Jewish Achievement: A Doubly Right Wing Issue

Authors: Sascha Vongehr
Comments: 8 pages, 2 figures, 26 references

Ashkenazim Jews (AJ) comprise roughly 30% of Nobel Prize winners, ‘elite institute’ faculty, etc. Mean intelligence quotients (IQ) fail explaining this, because AJ are only 2.2% of the US population; the maximum possible would be 13% high achievement and needing IQs above 165. The growing anti-Semitic right wing supports conspiracy theories with this. However, standard deviations (SD) depend on means. An AJ-SD of 17 is still lower than the coefficient of variation suggests, but lifts the right wing of the AJ-IQ distribution sufficiently to account for high achievement. We do not assume threshold IQs or smart fractions. Alternative mechanisms such as intellectual AJ culture or ethnocentrism must be regarded as included through their IQ-dependence. Antisemitism is thus opposed in its own domain of discourse; it is an anti-intelligence position inconsistent with eugenics. We discuss the relevance for ‘social sciences’ as sciences and that human intelligence co-evolved for (self-)deception.
Category: Statistics